PDF《基于 LEAP 模型的京津冀地区钢铁行业中长期减排潜力分析》

第32 卷第3期2019 年3月环境科学研究Research of Environmental Sciences Vol.

32?No.3 Mar.?2019 收稿日期: 2018~07~07 修订日期: 2018~10~27 作者简介: 李新(1986~)?女?辽宁沈阳人?高级工程师?博士?主要从事区域、行业环境经济形势分析与环境政策研究?lixin@ caep.org.cn. ?责任作者?穆献中(1966~)?男?山东菏泽人?教授?博导?主要从事技术经济、资源与环境经济研究?muxianzhong@ bjut.edu.cn 基金项目: 国家自然科学基金项目(No.71673017) Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.71673017) 基于 LEAP 模型的京津冀地区钢铁行业中长期减排潜力分析 李新1?2 ? 路路2?3 ? 穆献中1? ? 秦昌波2 1.北京工业大学循环经济研究院? 北京

100124 2.环境保护部环境规划院? 北京

100012 3.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所? 北京

100101 摘要: 京津冀地区是我国钢铁行业集中布局的地区?也是大气污染最突出的地区. 分析京津冀地区钢铁行业各类治污工具的中 长期减排影响?对于选择最优减排措施、加快推动该地区大气污染治理意义重大. 构建基于 LEAP 模型的京津冀地区钢铁行业模 型?以2015 年为基准年?以每

5 a 为一个时间节点?结合规模减排、结构减排、技术减排、末端治理

4 种减排措施?模拟计算了

4 种 单一政策情景及

4 种组合政策情景下 2015―2030 年京津冀地区钢铁行业主要污染物(SO2 、NOx 、PM10 、PM2?

5 、CO2 )排放量及相 应的减排影响. 结果表明:在单一政策情景下?规模减排情景对

5 种污染物减排效果均十分显著. 在组合政策情景下?4 种减排措 施叠加的综合减排情景效果最好?在该情景下京津冀地区钢铁行业到

2030 年SO2 、NOx 、PM10 、PM2?

5 、CO2 排放量将分别削减 27? 73*104 、17? 85*104 、42? 94*104 、27? 35*104 、23? 15*107 t?在规模~末端治理情景下?除CO2 外其余污染物减排效果仅次于综合 减排情景?规模~结构减排情景对 PM10 和PM2?

5 的减排效果相对明显?规模~技术减排情景对 CO2 、SO2 、NOx 的减排效果相对明显. 研究显示?京津冀地区钢铁行业需要在大力淘汰落后过剩产能、缩减产量等源头治理措施的基础上?持续加强末端治理、提高废 钢比例、提升节能减排技术水平等协同治理能力?以提高治污减排效果. 关键词: 京津冀地区? 钢铁行业? 情景分析? 减排影响? LEAP 中图分类号: X323 文章编号: 1001~6929(2019)03~0365~07 文献标志码: A DOI: 10? 13198Mj? issn? 1001~6929? 2018? 12?

02 Emission Reduction Potential of Pollutants Emissions from Iron and Steel Industry over Beijing~Tianjin~Hebei Region based on LEAP LI Xin1?2 ? LU Lu2?3 ? MU Xianzhong1? ? QIN Changbo2 1.Institute of Recycling Economy? Beijing University of Technology? Beijing 100124? China 2.Chinese Academy for Environmental Planning? Beijing 100012? China 3.Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research? CAS? Beijing 100101? China Abstract: The Beijing~Tianjin~Hebei Region is concentrated with steel industry and is the most prominent area of air pollution in China. Analysis of the medium and long~term emission reduction by using various pollution control tools in the steel industry is of great significance for selecting the optimal emission reduction policy to accelerate the air pollution control in the region. This paper simulated and calculated the emission of the major pollutants SO2 ? NOx ? PM10 ? PM2?

5 ? CO2 ? and their corresponding emission reduction effects under eight scenarios of both single and collaborative emission reductions in the Beijing~Tianjin~Hebei Region from

2015 to 2030. This is based on the constructed LEAP~Beijing~Tianjin~Hebei iron and steel industry model? using

2015 as the base year and

5 years as a period? combined with four emission reduction measures? which are scale emission reduction? structural emission reduction? technology emission reduction and end treatment. The results showed that under a single emission reduction scenario? the scale emission reduction scenario had significant effects on the reduction of the five pollutants compared with other scenarios. Under the scenario of collaborative emissions reduction? the integrated emission reduction scenarios with the four superimposed measures worked best. Under this scenario? SO2 ? NOx ? PM10 ? PM2?

5 and CO2 pollutant emissions of the iron and steel industry in the Beijing~Tianjin~Hebei Region would be reduced by 27? 73*

104 ? 17? 85*104 ? 42? 94*104 ? 27? 35*104 and 23? 15*107 t in 2030. Compared with the comprehensive scenario? the reduction effect of end treatment was only second to the integrated scenario? except for the reduction of CO2 emission. The reduction~structure scenario had 环境科学研究第32 卷relatively significant reduction effect on PM10 and PM2?

5 ? as the reduction~technology scenario did on CO2 ? SO2 and NOx . Therefore? it is necessary for the iron and steel industry in the Beijing~Tianjin~Hebei Region to make more effort in eliminating the backward and excess production capacity? as well as reducing the output at the source origin. On this basis? it is also needed to continuously strengthen end treatment? increase scrap ratios? and increase the level of energy~saving and emission~reduction technologies? in order to improve the potential for pollution control and emission reduction. Keywords: Beijing~Tianjin~Hebei Region? steel industry? scenario analysis? emission reduction effect? LEAP 钢铁行业是我国工业经济的重要支柱产业?也是 大气污染排放的重点行业. 当前我国大气污染防治 进入攻坚阶段?推动钢铁行业污染治理成为改善大气 环境质量、保障环境民生的重要途径. 京津冀地区是 我国空气污染最严重区域之一?根据环境状况公报数 据?2015 年该区域重度及以上污染天数占比达10? 0%?年均ρ(PM2?

5 )、 ρ ( PM10 ) 分别为

77、

132 μgMm3 ?是GB 3095―2012?环境空气质量标准? 中二 级标准限值的

2 倍左右? 同时?我国钢铁产业也主要 集中在该地区?2015 年京津冀地区钢材产量达到 2? 09*108 t?占全国总产量的 26%?其中?河北省产量 为1? 88*108 t?约占该区域总产量的 90%[1] . 钢铁生 产过程中主体工序资源能源消耗量大?并且排放大量 的CO2 、SO2 、NOx 、烟(粉) 尘、 二英、 VOCs 等污染 物?是京津冀地区大气污染排放的重要贡献者[2] .

2015 年河北省钢铁行业 SO2 排放量占全省总排放量 的1M4?烟(粉)尘排放量占 40%[3] . 相关研究表明?各 排放源贡献大小与其一次 PM2?

5 排放水平高度相 关[4~6] ?而京津冀地区工业源减排对 PM2?

5 浓度影响 最大?其次是民用源和农业源?工业部门内钢铁冶金 行业减排效果最明显[7~8] . 因此?研究京津冀地区钢 铁行业治污减排影响对该地区实现大气环境质量改 善具有重要意义. 相关研究主要集中于国家及省级尺度钢铁行业 减排 现状及政策评估[9~12] ? 以及基于LEAP ( long range energy alternatives planning system?长期能源替 代规划系统) 模型的钢铁行业 CO2 排放强度的分 析[13~16] 等?对区域层面钢铁行业多种大气污染物协 同减排路径分析的研究较少[17~19] . 基于 LEAP 模型 提供的建模基础框架?构建了基于 LEAP 模型的京津 冀地区钢铁行业模型. 依据当前钢铁行业规模减排、 结构 减排、 技术减排、 ........