PDF《公司动态》

公司动态 分析员: 布家杰 津上机床中国 [1651.

HK;

5.60港元* 未评级] - 正式起航 市值: 2.585亿美元*;

自由流通量: 25%;

三个月平均每日成交额: n.a. 公司背景:津上精密机床(中国)为日本津上公司在港分拆上市的附属公司.日本津上公 司是日本机床工具生产商,于东京交易所上市已有50年.根据Frost &

Sullivan,以2016 年的收入计算,津上精密机床于中国计算机数值控制(CNC)高精度机床行业排行第四, 同时是中国最大的外资CNC高精度机床制造商.津上机床中国宣布招股结果,发售价为 5.6港元,为招股价范围上限水平.公司合共接获 3,913份有效申请,认购合共 59,370,000股香港发售股份,为香港公开发售项下初步可供认购香港发售股份总数 9,000,000股的约6.6倍.国际发售项下初步提呈发售的发售股份已获适度超额认购.国 际发售项下的发售股份最终数目为81,000,000股 股份.股份于今日开始挂牌.基于每 股5.60港元的上市价,公司市值将为2.585亿美元,这市值对一些投资者来说可能颇 小.由于公司消息不多,而且路演推广活动也低调,公司上市后的股价表现或比预期平 淡.然而,考虑到其盈利能力优于中国同业,加上公司是香港少数的上市高端设备制造 商之一,若其股价表现真的较预期平淡,或为投资者带来重新关注的机会. 津上精密机床(中国)主要生产一系列CNC高精度机床,并以津上品牌向信息科技(IT)及 电子产品、汽车、医药器械、气动件生产及工程机械等多个行业出售有关工具产品.津 上精密机床(中国)的CNC高精度机床产品大致可分为五大类别,分别为:精密自动车 床、精密刀培车床、精密加工中心、精密磨床,以及精密滚丝机. 津上精密机床(中国)的精密自动车床对机床内由筒夹头夹持的金属工件进行切削X业, 通常用于 IT 及电子产品、 办公设备、 医疗器械、 相机及汽车等多个行业. 根据 Frost &

Sullivan 资料,公司于

2016 年以收入计在中国精密自动车床市场中位列第一,所占市场份额约为 34.8%.公司的精密刀塔车床乃由精密自动车床发展而来,通过额外加入一个刀塔,使其 可对长度较主轴直径长十倍以上的金属工件进行切割. 该额外刀塔亦可主行多轴运动, 以 在精密自动车床的基础上添加钻孔或铣削作业功能. 根据 Frost &

Sullivan 资料, 公司为中 国少数最先有能力制造及出售精密刀塔车床的制造商之一.公司的精密加工中心通常用 于不规则形状及结构复杂的金属加工. 精密加工中心通常用于金属加工、 汽车以及 IT 及电 子产品行业. 公司的精密磨床在产品结构方面类似精密自动车床, 惟精密磨床用砂轮取代 刀具. 精密磨床通常应用于生产军事、 航空及内燃机行业的零件. 精密滚丝机一般应用于 建筑及汽车行业批量生产加工并无对称孔且形状复杂的旋转轴. 津上精密机床(中国)于截止

2015、

2016 及2017 年3月31 日止的三个年度, 分别录得 1.783 亿元(人民币, 下同)、 5,580 万元及 1.126 亿元的净利润.

2016 财年的收入同比下降 34.0% 至13.575 亿元, 主要由于

2015 财年一家主要电子公司发布新产品, 导致年内公司对与该 产品相关的生产商之出货量大幅增加.

2017 财年的收入同比增长 20.5%至16.363 亿元, 主 要由于:(i) 受惠于销售网络扩张,CNC 高精度机床的销售增加;

(ii) 新产品发布;

及(iii) IT 及电子产品,以及汽车行业的需求增加.于2015-16 年,受到宏观经济环境影响,终端 需求疲弱, CNC 机床工具供货商期内的营运表现受到影响, 津上精密机床(中国)亦未能幸 免. 我们预期公司在 2017-18 年的收入增速加快, 原因是:(i)公司的销售网络持续扩长;

(ii) 公司产品可更广泛应用于 IT 产品及汽车行业;

(iii) 较低汇率;

以及 (iv) CNC 高精度机 床于中国的渗透率不断提升. 根据 Frost &

Sullivan 资料,CNC 高精度机床于

2016 年在中国的渗透率约为 24.0%,并于

2021 年提升至 30.7%, 仍衰低于日本及德国于

2016 年67.1%及65.8%的渗透率. 中国的 CNC 高精度机床市场规模预料将由

2016 年的 1,185 亿元扩大至

2021 年的 1,561 亿元, 复合年 增长率为 5.7%.中国的 CNC 高精度机床市场为津上精密机床(中国)等机床制造商提供良 好的增长机会.公司与 Fanuc Corporation [6954.JP]、SMC Corporation [6273.JP]及株式会社 东京精密[7729.JP]等三名基石投资者订立基石投资协议, 三名投资者将合共认购 31.3%的 发行股份,及紧随全球发售完成后已发行股份总数的约 7.9%,禁售期为

6 个月. 2017年9月25日 来源: 彭博, 公司, 中国银河国际证券研究部;

*:上市价 [津上机床中国] 我们的观点:在2015年和2016年,中国的机械工具生产商持续受压,主要由于 其经营环境面对不少挑战.但是津上机床中国方面,虽然其业绩波动,但其表现 仍优于一些国内的同业.鉴于数控高精度机床在中国越来越普及,规模效益亦在 提升,预计津上机床中国可能会在18财年和19财年实现较快增长,并实现较具 持续性的增长.根据我们的估算,基于每股5.60港元的上市价,公司的18财年市 盈率为12.9倍(即使计及约2,100万港元的上市费用),较全球上市同业的平均 21.8倍存在折让. 由于公司IPO规模较小,加上公司的消息不多,市场对其IPO 的反应可能较预期冷淡.若公司在刚上市时的股价表现平平,我们认为这或为寻 求高端设备公司的投资者带来重新关注的机会.该公司是优质的设备公司,在行 业低迷期间表现优于同业,在市场回升期间或更能受益.若上市后股价疲弱,将 带来良好的重新关注机会. 催化剂:公布18财年业绩;

发布新产品;

吸引更多市场目光. 来源: 彭博, 公司, 中国银河国际证券研究部 所得款项之用途: (i) 约42.4百万港元(占所得款项净额约16.6%),预期将主要用于重建及翻新部分生产工厂;

(ii) 约17.4百万港元(占所得款项净额约6.8%),预期将主要用于为平湖生产工厂购置及更换生产机 器及设备;

(iii) 约1.7百万港元(占所得款项净额约0.7%),预期将用于进一步扩大销售网络及增加于中国的市 场渗透率;

及(iv) 约166.0百万港元(占所得款项净额约75.9%),预期将主要用于偿还部份银行贷款. 截止3月底财政年度 收入 变动 (同比) 先利润 毛利率 (%) 净利润 净利润率 (%) 每股盈利 (基本) 变动 (同比) 每股股息 净资产收益率(%) 股息收益率(%) 市盈率(倍) 市净率(倍) 自由现金流收益率 (%) 资本开支 (百万元) 每股自由现金流 净负债比率 (%) 主要财务指标(百万人民币) COMPANY NEWS Analysts: Mark Po Precision Tsugami (China) Corporation Limited [1651.HK;

HK$5.60* Not Rated] - The Machine Starts. Market Cap: US$258.5m*;

Free Float: 25%;

3-months Average Daily Turnover: n.a. The Company. Precision Tsugami (China) Corporation Limited (PTC) is a spin-off from Tsugami Japan, which is a Japanese manufacturer of machine tools and has been listed on Tokyo Stock Exchange for

50 years. According to Frost &

Sullivan, Prevision Tsugami ranked fourth in the CNC high-precision machine tool industry in China in terms of turnover in

2016 and was the largest foreign-owned CNC high- precision machine tool manufacturer in China in terms of turnover in 2016. PTC'

s IPO price has been set at HK$5.6, which is at the high end of the range. Regarding the Hong Kong Public Offering a total of 3,913 valid applications were received for a total of 59,370,000 offer shares, representing approximately 6.6 times the total number of 9,000,000 offer shares in Hong Kong Public Offering. According to PTC'

s announcement, the offer shares initially offered under the International Offering have been well oversubscribed, and the final number of offer shares under the International Offering is 81,000,000 shares. PTC shares will begin trading today. Based on the IPO price of HK$5.60 per share, PTC'

s market cap will be US$258.5m, which may look small to some investors. PTC'

s post-IPO share price performance may be cooler than expected, given limited news flow and a lack of marketing activity. However, a cooler- than-expected post-IPO performance may offer a re-visit opportunity for PTC, given its better profitability than its Chinese peers and the fact that the Company is one of the few listed high-end equipment makers in the HK market. PTC is engaged primarily in the manufacture and sales of a wide range of CNC high precision machine tools under the TSUGAMI brand to manufacturers engaged in various industries, including IT and electronic products, automobile, medical apparatus, pneumatic component manufacturing and engineering machinery. PTC'

s CNC high-precision machine tools can be broadly classified into five major product categories: precision automatic lathes, precision turret machines, precision machining centers, precision grinding machines, and precision thread and form rolling machines. PTC'

s precision automatic lathes perform the cutting work on metal work pieces held by chucks inside the machine tools. Precision automatic lathes are commonly used in various industries, including the IT and consumer electronic products, office equipment, medical apparatus, camera and automobile industries. PTC ranked no.1 in China'

s precision automatic lathe market in

2016 with a 34.8% market share, according to Frost &

Sullivan. PTC'

s precision turret machine evolved from its precision automatic lathe by adding an additional turret which can cut metal work pieces that are more than

10 times longer than its spindle diameter. This additional turret can also move in multiple axes to add drilling or milling operations to the precision automatic lathe. PTC was one of the first manufacturers to manufacture and sell precision turret machines in China, according to Frost &

Sullivan. PTC'

s precision machining centers are typically used for processing metal with irregular shapes and complicated structures. Precision machining centers are commonly used in the metal processing, automobile, and IT &

electronic products industries. PTC'

s precision grinding machines are similar in structure to its precision automatic lathes, but instead of using cutting tools, they use grinding wheels. Precision grinding machines are commonly used to produce parts for the military, aerospace and internal-combustion engine industries. Precision thread and form rolling machines are generally used for the mass production of complicated shapes with non-symmetrical holes in rotary axes in the construction and automobile industries PTC reported net profit of RMB178.3m, RMB55.8m and RMB112.6m for the years ended Mar 31, 2015,

2016 and 2017, respectively. Revenue in FY16 was RMB1,357.5m, down 34.0% YoY, mainly due to a substantial shipment of machinery to a group of manufacturers related to a new product launch by a leading electronic company in FY15. Revenue in FY17 was RMB1,636.3m,........