PDF《全球锰行业发展趋势与机遇研究》

In preparing this research, we did not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of the reader.

Before making any investment decision based on this research, the reader needs to consider, with or without assistance of an adviser, whether the advice is appropriate to their particular investment needs, objectives and financial circumstances. Please see disclaimer. 全球锰行业发展趋势与机遇研究 国际锰学会第39届年会 - 伊斯坦布尔 2013年6月6日Duncan Hobbs +44

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4497 [email protected] C

2 C 全球锰行业发展趋势与机遇研究 ?全球钢铁生产与未来趋势预测 ?炼钢产业锰消耗量研究 ?中国在全球锰生产与消费中的地位 ?炼钢中的锰铁合金选择与应用 ?锰矿供应研究 ?结论 C

3 C 全球锰行业发展趋势与机遇研究 ?全球钢铁生产与未来趋势预测 ?炼钢产业锰消耗量研究 ?中国在全球锰生产与消费中的地位 ?炼钢中的锰铁合金选择与应用 ?锰矿供应研究 ?结论 C

4 C 锰市场概述――绝大多数原矿被用于生产钢铁行业所 需的锰铁合金 锰矿 高炉炼铁1 锰铁合金 渣中金属损失 硅锰2 长材 扁平材(板材)非临界面 举例 建筑钢材 未暴露在外的汽车部件 中低碳锰铁 扁平材低碳临界面 举例 汽车车身板 部分扁平不锈钢材 高碳锰铁 扁平材(板材)临界面 部分长材 举例 家电 API3管道,铁轨 非钢用途 举例 铸造产品,主要来自铸铁 主要使用高碳锰铁 仅有部分用于其他合金 电解金属锰 200系不锈钢 有色金属,主要为铝、铜 (占比10%-15%),电池, 电子产品以及焊接产品 (占比10-15%) 电解二氧化锰 干电池 化学产品 (高锰酸钾,氯化锰), 包括化肥 (硫酸锰),陶瓷, 玻璃以及产出部分金属 (锌、铀) 5% below benchmark return Macquarie - USA Outperform C return >

5% in excess of benchmark return Neutral C return within 5% of benchmark return Underperform C return >

5% below benchmark return Volatility index definition* This is calculated from the volatility of historic price movements. Very highChighest risk C Stock should be expected to move up or down 60-100% in a year C investors should be aware this stock is highly speculative. High C stock should be expected to move up or down at least 40-60% in a year C investors should be aware this stock could be speculative. Medium C stock should be expected to move up or down at least 30-40% in a year. LowCmedium C stock should be expected to move up or down at least 25-30% in a year. Low C stock should be expected to move up or down at least 15-25% in a year. * Applicable to Australian/NZ stocks only Recommendation C

12 months Note: Quant recommendations may differ from Fundamental Analyst recommendations Financial definitions All Adjusted data items have had the following adjustments made: Added back: goodwill amortisation, provision for catastrophe reserves, IFRS derivatives &

hedging, IFRS impairments &

IFRS interest expense Excluded: non recurring items, asset revals, property revals, appraisal value uplift, preference dividends &

minority interests EPS = adjusted net profit /efpowa* ROA = adjusted ebit / average total assets ROA Banks/Insurance = adjusted net profit /average total assets ROE = adjusted net profit / average shareholders funds Gross cashflow = adjusted net profit + depreciation *equivalent fully paid ordinary weighted average number of shares All Reported numbers for Australian/NZ listed stocks are modelled under IFRS (International Financial Reporting Standards). AU/NZ Asia RSA USA CA EUR Outperform 45.12% 53.24% 50.00% 40.70% 62.98% 43.30% (for US coverage by MCUSA, 6.10% of stocks covered are investment banking clients) Neutral 41.52% 28.01% 41.43% 55.01% 32.60% 34.10% (for US coverage by MCUSA, 4.91% of stocks covered are investment banking clients) Underperform 13.36% 18.74% 8.57% 4.29% 4.42% 22.60% (for US coverage by MCUSA, 3.33% of stocks covered are investment banking clients) Recommendation proportions C for quarter ending