PDF《APAC FUTURE OF》

APAC FUTURE OF ENERGY SUMMIT 亚太地区未来能源峰会 Michael Liebreich Chairman of the Advisory Board Twitter: @mliebreich 迈克尔・ 利布莱希 BNEF咨询委员会主席

2 November 2016, Shanghai 2016年11月2日,上海

1 Michael Liebreich @MLiebreich BNEF APAC Future of Energy Summit,

2 November

2016 #BNEFSummit PARIS AGREEMENT 巴黎协议 The Paris Agreement is a monumental triumph for people and our planet.

巴黎协定是全人类 和这个星球不朽的丰碑. Ban Ki Moon, former UN SG 前联合国秘书长 This is a turning point. This gives us the best possible shot to save the one planet we got. 这是一个转折点. 它是拯救我们唯一赖以生存的星球的最大努力. Barack Obama, US President 美国总统 Today'

s agreement signals nothing less than a renaissance for humankind. 今天所达成协议的意 义不亚于文艺复兴. Mr. Mogens Lykketoft, President, UN General Assembly 联合国大会主席 Together we have opened the door to a sustainable and climate-safe future for all. 我们共同开启了全人类 通向可持续发展的、气候安全的未来的大门. Christiana Figueres, former head, UNFCCC 前联合国气候变化框架公约主席

2 Michael Liebreich @MLiebreich BNEF APAC Future of Energy Summit,

2 November

2016 #BNEFSummit ONSHORE WIND 陆上风电 SOLAR PV 光伏 Location: Bidder: Signed: Construction: Price: Morocco 摩洛哥 Enel Green Power January

2016 2018 US$ 3.0 c/kWh Location: Bidder: Signed: Construction: Price: Peru 秘鲁 Enel Green Power February

2016 2017 US$ 4.8 c/kWh

2016 UNSUBSIDISED CLEAN ENERGY 2016年没有补贴的清洁能源 WORLD RECORDS 世界纪录 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance;

ImagesSiemens;

Wikimedia Commons

3 Michael Liebreich @MLiebreich BNEF APAC Future of Energy Summit,

2 November

2016 #BNEFSummit ONSHORE WIND 陆上风电 Location: Bidder: Signed: Construction: Price: Morocco 摩洛哥 Enel Green Power January

2016 2018 US$ 3.0 c/kWh Location: Bidder: Signed: Construction: Price: Coahuila, Mexico 墨西哥 Enel Green Power March

2016 2018 US$ 3.6 c/kWh

2016 UNSUBSIDISED CLEAN ENERGY 2016年没有补贴的清洁能源 WORLD RECORDS 世界纪录 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance;

ImagesSiemens;

Wikimedia Commons SOLAR PV 光伏

4 Michael Liebreich @MLiebreich BNEF APAC Future of Energy Summit,

2 November

2016 #BNEFSummit ONSHORE WIND 陆上风电 SOLAR PV 光伏 Location: Bidder: Signed: Construction: Price: Morocco 摩洛哥 Enel Green Power January

2016 2018 US$ 3.0 c/kWh Location: Bidder: Signed: Construction: Price: Dubai 迪拜 Masdar Consortium May

2016 2019 US$ 2.99 c/kWh

2016 UNSUBSIDISED CLEAN ENERGY 2016年没有补贴的清洁能源 WORLD RECORDS 世界纪录 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance;

ImagesSiemens;

Wikimedia Commons

5 Michael Liebreich @MLiebreich BNEF APAC Future of Energy Summit,

2 November

2016 #BNEFSummit ONSHORE WIND 陆上风电 SOLAR PV 光伏 Location: Bidder: Signed: Construction: Price: Morocco 摩洛哥 Enel Green Power January

2016 2018 US$ 3.0 c/kWh Location: Bidder: Signed: Construction: Price: Chile 智利 Solarpack Corporation August

2016 2019 US$ 2.91 c/kWh

2016 UNSUBSIDISED CLEAN ENERGY 2016年没有补贴的清洁能源 WORLD RECORDS 世界纪录 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance;

ImagesSiemens;

Wikimedia Commons

6 Michael Liebreich @MLiebreich BNEF APAC Future of Energy Summit,

2 November

2016 #BNEFSummit WIND COSTS HAVE FALLEN 50% SINCE

2009 风电成本下降 WIND AND SOLAR EXPERIENCE CURVES 风电及光伏的经验曲线 Note: Prices are in real (2015) USD. '

Current price'

is $0.4/W Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Maycock Note: Pricing data has been inflation corrected to 2014. We assume the debt ratio of 70%, cost of debt (bps to LIBOR) of 175, cost of equity of 8%. *Data is for Northern Europe. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Learning rate 24.3% SOLAR COSTS HAVE FALLEN >

99% SINCE

1976 90% since

2009 光伏成本下降 SOLAR PV MODULE COST ($/W) 光伏组件成本(美元/瓦) ONSHORE WIND LEVELISED COST* ($/MWH) 北欧陆上风电平准化度电成本(美元/兆瓦时)

7 Michael Liebreich @MLiebreich BNEF APAC Future of Energy Summit,

2 November

2016 #BNEFSummit CAPACITY FACTOR IMPROVEMENTS 容量系数不断提升 LONGER BLADES 更长的叶片 LOW-WIND TURBINES AT HIGH-WIND SITES 在高风速区域使用低风速风机 SITE-OPTIMISED POWER CURVES 根据选 址优化功率曲线 HIGHER TOWERS 更高的风塔 Source: Siemens, Nordex, GE, Vestas

8 Michael Liebreich @MLiebreich BNEF APAC Future of Energy Summit,

2 November

2016 #BNEFSummit Note: Averages are capacity-weighted. We calculate the capacity factor with our proprietary Wind Farm Capacity Factor Tool using real project data and wind resource data provided by 3TIER by Vaisala. We assume P90 value in the capacity factor tool. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance GLOBAL (EX. CHINA) ONSHORE WIND CAPACITY FACTOR IMPROVEMENTS, 1997-2015 (%) 全球(不含中国)陆上风电容量系数增长,1997-2015(%)

9 Michael Liebreich @MLiebreich BNEF APAC Future of Energy Summit,

2 November

2016 #BNEFSummit Note: LCOE at time of commissioning. Auction bids are transformed to a bid-equivalent LCOEs from a project'

s estimate lifetime, tariff price and duration, tariff escalators and an assumption on power price for the merchant tail using

2015 average day-ahead power prices. For planned auctions we use the auction ceiling price as a proxy for the winning tariff. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance OFFSHORE WIND LCOE BY COMMISSIONING DATE, 2012-30 ($/MWH) 海上风电平准化度电成本,按投产时间,2012-30 (美元/兆瓦时) Industry target range 行业目标区 间 历史平准化成本

10 Michael Liebreich @MLiebreich BNEF APAC Future of Energy Summit,

2 November

2016 #BNEFSummit Note: LCOE at time of commissioning. Auction bids are transformed to a bid-equivalent LCOEs from a project'

s estimate lifetime, tariff price and duration, tariff escalators and an assumption on power price for the merchant tail using

2015 average day-ahead power prices. For planned auctions we use the auction ceiling price as a proxy for the winning tariff. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance X X X X X X Neart na Goithe East Anglia

1 Early CfDs ROCs X Horns Rev III X Danish '

near-shore'

X Borssele I &

II Industry target range OFFSHORE WIND LCOE BY COMMISSIONING DATE, 2012-30 ($/MWH) 海上风电平准化度电成本,按投产时间,2012-30 (美元/兆瓦时) 历史平准化成本 Industry target range 行业目标区 间11 Michael Liebreich @MLiebreich BNEF APAC Future of Energy Summit,

2 November

2016 #BNEFSummit Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance PRICE IMPACT OF SWITCH FROM FIT TO AUCTIONS, SELECTED COUNTRIES (NORMALISED) 从固定上网电价过度到招标制度对部分国家的价格影响(标准化价格) SOLAR PV 光伏 (unit price normalised to

100 at date of first auction) ONSHORE WIND 陆上风电 (unit price normalised to

100 at date of first auction) : non-tariff price signals : tariffs : auctions KEY EMEA Other LatAm Brazil India South Africa

12 Michael Liebreich @MLiebreich BNEF APAC Future of Energy Summit,

2 November

2016 #BNEFSummit CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT HIT A RECORD IN

2015 2015年,清洁能源投资额创下历史新高 RECORD INVESTMENT IN

2015 2015年清洁能源投资额 创下历史新高 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes corporate and government R&

D, and spending for digital energy and energy storage projects (not reported in quarterly statistics). Excludes large hydro. Source: Bloomberg Intelligence, Bloomberg New Energy Finance

13 Michael Liebreich @MLiebreich BNEF APAC Future of Energy Summit,

2 November

2016 #BNEFSummit Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes corporate and government R&

D, and spending for digital energy and energy storage projects (not reported in quarterly statistics). Excludes large hydro. Source: Bloomberg Intelligence, Bloomberg New Energy Finance CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT ROSE, CAPACITY INSTALLATIONS ROSE FASTER 清洁能源投资额上升,清洁能源装机量增速更快 GLOBAL CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT VS CAPACITY INSTALLATIONS 2004-15 全球清洁能源投资额 VS 装机量 2004-15 88GW 20GW Spend the same, get more 投资不变,装机增长 152GW Investment 投资额 +463% Installations 装机量 +660% Spend more, get more 投资越多,装机越多

14 Michael Liebreich @MLiebreich BNEF APAC Future of Energy Summit,

2 November

2016 #BNEFSummit RENEWABLES SHARE OF TOTAL SYSTEM GENERATION, 2000C15 可再生能源发电比例,2000-15 Note: Y-axes are logarithmic with base

2 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, BP, UNEP WIND 风电 Four doublings 四次翻番 SOLAR 光伏 Seven doublings 七次翻番 0.05% 0.03% 0.01% 15年years 15年years

15 Michael Liebreich @MLiebreich BNEF APAC Future of Energy Summit,

2 November

2016 #BNEFSummit Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance GLOBAL EV SALES BY REGION 全球不同地区电动车销量 +81% CAGR (年复合增长率)

16 Michael Liebreich @MLiebreich BNEF APAC Future of Energy Summit,

2 November

2016 #BNEFSummit Tesla Model

3 特斯拉 BMW i3 宝马 VW e-Golf 大众 Chevy Bolt 雪佛兰 Images: Tesla, BMW, VW, GM, BYD EV MASS MARKET 大众消费级电动车 $30,000 +

200 MILES RANGE BYD E6 比亚迪 17........