PDF《东方航空（670.HK）》

yields based on current market price Valuation Method PE 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 01-Nov-11 01-Dec-11 01-Jan-12 01-Feb-12 01-Mar-12 01-Apr-12 01-May-12 01-Jun-12 01-Jul-12 01-Aug-12 01-Sep-12 01-Oct-12 01-Nov-12

0 10

20 30

40 50

60 70 Volume, mn

670 hk equity HSI 0% 50% 100% 东方航空 东方航空 东方航空 东方航空(670.HK) Phillip Securities (Hong Kong) Ltd Research

2 November

2012 2 of

2 九月经营资料 九月经营资料 九月经营资料 九月经营资料: : : :同比改善 同比改善 同比改善 同比改善, , , ,环比下滑 环比下滑 环比下滑 环比下滑 与去年同期相比,九月东航整体的客货运量均保持上升态 势:受益於今年中秋国庆双节效应,客运延续双位数增长, RPK 按年增 11.5%.另外,归功於 iphone5 上市带动的电子 产品运输回升,货运量回暖,同比增 4%. 若与上月资料对比,随著暑运旺季的结束,公司客运量环比 回落达 11.6%,但iphone5 助推货运量较八月上涨 9%. 细分航线,来自国内航线的需求是推动运量增长的主要动 力,国内航线的客货运量同比增速分别 14%和7%,高於 国际航线(6%,4%)与地区航线(0.6%,-15.5%). 从运营效率来看,东航的客座率提升最快,80.37%,同比 上升 1.25 个百分点,环比降低 3.2 个百分点,超越了南航 (80.3%),与国航(81.8%)的差距进一步缩窄. 载运率仍保持行业较高水准,同比上升

3 个百分点,环比上 升3.2 个百分点至 67.4%,远高於国航(61.6%)和南航 (58%). Fig 1. RPK growth of CEA -30% -10% 10% 30% 50% 70% 90% 110% 130% J a n -

1 0 M a r -

1 0 M a y -

1 0 J u l -

1 0 S e p -

1 0 N o v -

1 0 J a n -

1 1 M a r -

1 1 M a y -

1 1 J u l -

1 1 S e p -

1 1 N o v -

1 1 J a n -

1 2 M a r -

1 2 M a y -

1 2 J u l -

1 2 S e p -

1 2 Total domestic international regional Source: Company reports, PSR Fig 2. P L/F ( ( ( (Passenger Load Factor) ) ) )Comparison

65 70

75 80

85 90 J a n -

0 8 M a y -

0 8 S e p -

0 8 J a n -

0 9 M a y -

0 9 S e p -

0 9 J a n -

1 0 M a y -

1 0 S e p -

1 0 J a n -

1 1 M a y -

1 1 S e p -

1 1 J a n -

1 2 M a y -

1 2 S e p -

1 2 AC CEA CSA Source: Company reports, PSR Fig 3. Sep Ytd growth ratio Comparison Sep. YTD.12 CEA AC CSA Capacity ASK 6.73% 4.30% 12.80% Domestic 8.13% 2.80% 9.40% International 4.84% 6.60% 33.10% Regional -4.33% 4.80% 26.30% AFTK 7.47% 1.50% 9.90% Domestic -1.44% -1.50% -2.90% International 13.51% 2.00% 24.70% Regional -24.80% 22.30% 20.90% Traffic RPK 8.00% 2.80% 11.30% Domestic 7.54% 0.40% 27.10% International 10.60% 6.50% 27.10% Regional -1.09% 4.10% 15.20% RFTK 10.24% -0.60% 14.30% Domestic -0.94% 0.50% 5.70% International 15.03% -1.60% 42.90% Regional -23.49% 31.40% 19.10% Passenger Number 6.33% 0.70% 7.50% Domestic 6.08% -0.30% 6.60% International 10.15% 6.10% 11.50% Regional 1.47% 5.10% 17.40% Cargo Weight Carried -0.19% -0.90% 8.70% Domestic -2.45% -1.60% 4.40% International 6.67% -3.30% 25.90% Regional -21.94% 29.30% 21.30% Load Factor Passenger (P L/F) 0.94% -1.20% -1.10% Domestic -0.44% -1.90% -1.20% International 4.16% 0.00% -3.50% Regional 2.48% -0.60% 0.50% Freight(F L/F) 1.58% -1.20% 2.15% Domestic 0.23% 0.90% 3.48% International 0.93% -2.30% 2.99% Regional 0.84% 3.00% -0.67% Source: Company reports, PSR 三季度纯利倒退主要受汇兑损失拖累 三季度纯利倒退主要受汇兑损失拖累 三季度纯利倒退主要受汇兑损失拖累 三季度纯利倒退主要受汇兑损失拖累 公司近日公布第三季度财报,期内营业总收入 251.26 亿元, 同比上升 2.8%,营业成本上升 3.8%至226.6 亿,纯利 26.35 亿人民币,按年倒退 20.4%,每股收益 23.36 分,业绩跌幅 环比较上半年大幅收窄. 业绩倒退主要受汇兑损失拖累影响.受人民币贬值的影响, 公司第三季度汇兑净损失 1.43 亿元,去年同期收益 6.85 亿元;