PDF《中国城市天然气消费驱动因素分析》

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130 ・ 中国城市天然气消费驱动因素分析 高建董秀成 中国石油大学(北京)工商管理学院 摘要为推动我国能源革命,培育天然气成为主体能源之一,有必要进一步研究我国天然气消费量的发展趋势,探寻影响天 然气消费量的驱动因素.

为此,采用迪氏对数指标分解法,构建城市天然气消费量分解模型,将驱动因素分解为空间扩张、管网密度、 人口密度、人口城镇化、居民天然气气化率、能源消费弹性、天然气替代、经济增长和管道规模等

9 个效应,并定量分析各效应对 我国城市天然气消费量变动的贡献率.研究结果表明 : ①各省天然气消费量驱动因素存在着较大的差异 ;

②管道密度效应、管网规 模效应、经济增长效应、居民天然气气化率效应、空间扩张效应、能源消费弹性效应能显著推动城市天然气消费量的增长,而人口 密度和人口城镇化效应的影响则并不显著.进而根据分效应贡献率和市场特征,将中国

30 个省区市天然气市场划分为成熟型、培育 型、经济发展型和资源约束型等

4 种类型,并分析了各类型市场天然气消费的核心驱动因素,以期为因地制宜开展天然气产业规划 和政策制定提供决策依据. 关键词 中国 城市天然气 消费 驱动因素 迪氏对数指标 分解 贡献率 产业规划 DOI: 10.3787/j.issn.1000-0976.2018.03.016 Stimulating factors of urban gas consumption in China Gao Jian &

Dong Xiucheng (School of Business Administration, China University of Petroleum, Beijing 102249, China) NATUR. GAS IND. VOLUME 38, ISSUE 3, pp.130-137, 3/25/2018. (ISSN 1000-0976;

In Chinese) Abstract: To promote energy revolution and make natural gas turn into one of the primary energy sources, it is necessary to study the developing trend of natural gas consumption and explore its stimulating factors in China. In view of this, the Logarithmic Mean Disivia Index (LDMI) was applied to establish a decomposition function of urban gas consumption to calculate the multi-structure factors includ- ing Pipeline Length, Per Capital GDP, Population Urbanization Rate, Urban Spatial Expansion and Energy Substitute, Pipeline Network Density, Energy Consumption Elasticity of GDP, Population Density, and Gas Penetration Rate and Economic Growth, and the contrib- uting rates of each which to urban gas consumption variation were quantitatively discussed in China. This study demonstrated that there exist great differences in those stimulating factors of urban gas consumption among cities and provinces in China, and to a significant in- crease of which the major contributors include all the above-mentioned

9 factors except for Population Density and Population Urbaniza- tion Rate. On this basis, according to each factor contribution rate and individual market feature, four types of natural gas markets across about

30 cities and provinces in China were thus classified: mature (developed) market, developing market, eco-development-oriented market, and resource-constrained market, the essential stimulating factors of which were also analyzed. Hopefully, this study will provide a reference for the industrial planning and policy-making in the natural gas sector adaptable to local conditions. Keywords: China;

Urban gas;

Consumption;

Driving factor;

LMDI;

Decomposition;

Contribution rate;

Industrial planning 基金项目 : 中国石油大学(北京)优秀青年教师研究项目 国际石油市场动态均衡研究 (编号 : ZX20150114) . 作者简介: 高建,