PDF《CHINA'S MYANMAR DILEMMA》

s stability and on China'

s ability to leverage the advantages it holds. Political instability and uncertainty have resulted in a lack of confidence in Myanmar'

s investment environment, and weak govern- ance and widespread corruption have made it difficult for even strong Chinese companies to operate there. Myanmar'

s borders continue to leak all sorts of prob- lems C not just insurgency, but also drugs, HIV/AIDS and, recently, tens of thousands of refugees. Chinese companies have been cited for environmental and eco- logical destruction as well as forced relocation and human rights abuses carried out by the Myanmar military. These problems are aggravated by differences in approach be- tween Beijing and the provincial government in Yunnan'

s capital Kunming, which implements policies towards the ethnic ceasefire groups. At the same time, resentment towards China, rooted in past invasions and prior Chinese support to the Commu- nist Party of Burma, is growing. Myanmar'

s leaders fear domination by their larger neighbour, and have tradi- tionally pursued policies of non-alignment and multilat- eralism to balance Chinese influence. Increasing compe- tition among regional actors for access to resources and economic relationships has allowed Myanmar to counter- balance China by strengthening cooperation with other countries such as India, Russia, Thailand, Singapore, North Korea and Malaysia. The military government is intensely nationalistic, unpredictable and resistant to ex- ternal criticism, making it often impervious to outside influence. While China shares the aspiration for a stable and pros- perous Myanmar, it differs from the West on how to achieve such goals. China will not engage with Myan- mar on terms dictated by the West. To bring Beijing on board, the wider international community will need to pursue a plausible strategy that takes advantage of areas of common interest. This strategy must be based on a realistic assessment of China'

s engagement with Myan- mar, its actual influence, and its economic and strategic interests. The West could better engage China to encour- age Myanmar'

s government to commit to a truly inclu- sive dialogue with the opposition and ethnic groups. In addition to talks on national reconciliation, dialogue should also address the economic and humanitarian cri- sis that hampers reconciliation at all levels of society. At the same time, China should act both directly and in close cooperation with ASEAN member countries to continue support for the good offices of the United Na- tions as well as to persuade the military to open up. China'

s Myanmar Dilemma Crisis Group Asia Report N°177,

14 September

2009 Page ii Myanmar is heading towards elections in

2010 which, despite major shortcomings, are likely to create oppor- tunities for generational and institutional changes. Inter- national policy towards Myanmar accordingly deserves careful reassessment. China is encouraging the govern- ment to make the process genuinely inclusive, but will certainly accept almost any result that does not involve major instability. While its capacity and willingness to influence Myanmar'

s domestic politics is limited, the international community should continue to encourage Beijing as well as other regional stakeholders to take part in a meaningful and concerted effort to address the transition in Myanmar. Beijing/Jakarta/Brussels,

14 September

2009 Asia Report N°177

14 September

2009 CHINA'

S MYANMAR DILEMMA I. INTRODUCTION China'