PDF《MONGOLIA》

?2014 International Monetary Fund IMF Country Report No.

14/64 MONGOLIA

2013 ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION―STAFF REPORT;

PRESS RELEASE AND STATEMENT BY THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR FOR MONGOLIA Under Article IV of the IMF'

s Articles of Agreement, the IMF holds bilateral discussions with members, usually every year. In the context of the

2013 Article IV consultation with Mongolia, the following documents have been released and are included in this package: ? Staff Report for the

2013 Article IV consultation, prepared by a staff team of the IMF, for Executive Board'

s consideration on November 15, 2013, following discussions that ended on September 24, 2013, with the officials of Mongolia on economic developments and policies. Based on information available at the time of these discussions, the staff report was completed on November 1, 2013. ? Informational Annex prepared by the IMF. ? Debt Sustainability Analysis prepared by the staffs of the IMF and the World Bank. ? Press Release summarizing the views of the Executive Board as expressed during its November 15,

2013 consideration of the staff report that concluded the Article IV consultation with Mongolia. ? Statement by the Executive Director for Mongolia. The policy of publication of staff reports and other documents allows for the deletion of market-sensitive information. Copies of this report are available to the public from International Monetary Fund ? Publication Services

700 19th Street, N.W. ? Washington, D.C.

20431 Telephone: (202) 623-7430 ? Telefax: (202) 623-7201 E-mail: [email protected] Internet: http://www.imf.org International Monetary Fund Washington, D.C. March

2014 MONGOLIA STAFF REPORT FOR THE

2013 ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION KEY ISSUES Overview. Mongolia has made impressive progress in developing its economy over the past decade. Medium-term prospects remain promising given Mongolia'

s large natural resource endowment, but macroeconomic policies have become unsustainably loose. The resulting balance of payments (BOP) pressures have been compounded by negative shocks to FDI and coal exports. Outlook and Risks. Staff expect the economy to grow by

12 percent this year and 9? percent in 2014, buoyed by the start of production at the Oyu Tolgoi (OT) copper and gold mine. Over the past two years, nonmining growth has been boosted by fiscal and monetary stimulus. In view of the uncertain external environment, Mongolia needs to change course to reduce its vulnerability to external shocks. Gross international reserves are still adequate for precautionary purposes, but they have been supported by external borrowing and the declining trend in net international reserves observed this year is not sustainable. Policies. Securing sustainable growth while addressing macroeconomic risks requires a package of fiscal adjustment, unwinding of the monetary stimulus provided this year, and continued exchange rate flexibility. Banking sector vulnerabilities and weaknesses in the business climate also need to be addressed. ? Some encouraging steps are being taken to tighten fiscal policy in the remainder of

2013 and by basing the

2014 budget on more realistic revenue projections. However, including off-budget spending by the Development Bank of Mongolia (DBM) the overall fiscal deficit in

2013 will likely again be over

10 percent of GDP. Implementation of the Fiscal Stability Law (FSL) is an urgent priority, with DBM spending to be included in the budget. Public investment projects should be reprioritized in view of constraints on absorptive and implementation capacity. ? The Bank of Mongolia (BOM)'