PDF《海外市场扰动公司中报》

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500

2008 2009

2010 2011H1 营业收入 同比增速 -36.69% 112.82% 30.87% -18.33% -50% 0% 50% 100% 150%

0 100

200 300

400 500

2008 2009

2010 2011H1 净利润 同比增速 27.2% 24.7% 21.0% 14.8% 11.3% 21.3% 18.8% 26.2% 31.3% 23.3% 21.1% 22.2% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 2010H1

2010 2011H1 余热锅炉 电站锅炉 工业锅炉 综合 5.1% 4.9% 6.6% 6.1% 6.6% 1.5% 2.2% 2.0% 1.8% 1.6% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8%

2007 2008

2009 2010 2011H1 管理费用 销售费用

1994 1736

883 899

736 716

678 910

443 457

0 1000

2000 3000

4000 5000

2010 2011H1 余热锅炉 电站锅炉 工业锅炉 总包 电站辅机 其他 51% 47% 7% 16% 12% 15% 21% 13% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

2010 2011H1 余热锅炉 电站锅炉 工业锅炉 总包 部件 电站辅机 其他

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图表 7:公司盈利预测明细 产品 项目

2008 2009

2010 2011E 2012E 2013E 工业锅炉 销售收入 (百万元) 206.32 89.03 124.13 316.22 395.28 553.39 yoy(%) 0.00% -56.85% 39.42% 154.75% 25.00% 40.00% 销售利润 (百万元) 32.23 -5.88 28.75 82.91 114.63 149.41 yoy(%) 0.00% -118.24% 588.95% 188.38% 38.26% 30.34% 毛利率(%) 15.62% -6.60% 23.15% 26.22% 29.00% 27.00% ±(%) 0.00% -22.22% 29.75% 3.07% 2.78% -2.00% 余热锅炉 销售收入 (百万元) 1,124.17 1,362.41 1,670.20 1,440.48 1,469.29 3,232.44 yoy(%) 0.00% 21.19% 22.59% -13.75% 2.00% 120.00% 销售利润 (百万元) 239.69 189.72 397.97 355.50 308.55 646.49 yoy(%) 0.00% -20.85% 109.77% -10.67% -13.21% 109.52% 毛利率(%) 21.32% 13.92% 23.82% 24.68% 21.00% 20.00% ±(%) 0.00% -7.40% 9.90% 0.86% -3.68% -1.00% 电站锅炉 销售收入 (百万元) 170.50 358.26 360.00 424.70 637.05 1,019.28 yoy(%) 0.00% 110.12% 0.49% 17.97% 50.00% 60.00% 销售利润 (百万元) 36.40 -5.07 67.20 47.84 140.15 214.05 yoy(%) 0.00% -113.93% 1425.44% -28.81% 192.96% 52.73% 毛利率(%) 21.34% -1.41% 18.66% 11.26% 22.00% 21.00% ±(%) 0.00% -22.75% 20.07% -7.40% 10.74% -1.00% 电站辅机 销售收入 (百万元) 344.25 150.17 72.02 273.07 163.84 262.15 yoy(%) 0.00% -56.38% -52.04% 279.16% -40.00% 60.00% 销售利润 (百万元) 13.90 11.86 6.92 37.10 26.21 41.94 yoy(%) 0.00% -14.68% -41.65% 436.13% -29.34% 60.00% 毛利率(%) 4.03% 7.89% 9.61% 13.59% 16.00% 16.00% ±(%) 0.00% 3.86% 1.72% 3.98% 2.41% 0.00% 部件 销售收入 (百万元) 161.14 343.31 192.88 19.45 28.20 33.84 yoy(%) 0.00% 113.05% -43.82% -89.92% 45.00% 20.00% 销售利润 (百万元) 40.35 60.12 56.54 6.94 7.61 9.48 yoy(%) 0.00% 49.00% -5.95% -87.73% 9.72% 24.44% 毛利率(%) 25.03% 17.51% 29.31% 35.70% 27.00% 28.00% ±(%) 0.00% -7.52% 11.80% 6.39% -8.70% 1.00% 总包 销售收入 (百万元) 0.00 99.84 290.75 617.58 555.82 639.20 yoy(%) 0.00% 0.00% 191.22% 112.41% -10.00% 15.00% 销售利润 (百万元) 0.00 10.29 75.32 143.15 138.96 159.80 yoy(%) 0.00% 0.00% 631.97% 90.06% -2.93% 15.00% 毛利率(%) 0.00% 10.30% 25.90% 23.18% 25.00% 25.00% ±(%) 0.00% 0.00% 15.60% -2.72% 1.82% 0.00% 合计 销售收入 (百万元) 2,257.56 2,613.57 2,841.90 3,309.02 3,488.75 6,003.49 yoy(%) 0.00% 15.77% 8.74% 16.44% 5.43% 72.08% 销售利润 (百万元) 426.72 322.88 673.77 698.67 772.01 1,260.65 yoy(%) 0.00% -24.33% 108.68% 3.70% 10.50% 63.29% 毛利率(%) 18.90% 12.35% 23.71% 21.11% 22.13% 21.00% ±(%) 0.00% -6.55% 11.36% -2.60% 1.02% -1.13% 数据来源:中邮证券研发部 公司公告

4 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 附录:预测财务报表明细 利润表 2010A 2011E 2012E 2013E 财务分析与估值 2010A 2011E 2012E 2013E 营业收入 3309.02 3488.75 6003.48 7386.15 毛利率 21.11% 22.13% 21.00% 21.10% 减: 营业成本 2610.35 2716.74 4742.83 5827.49 三费/销售收入 7.85% 7.66% 7.80% 7.76% 营业税金及附加 15.25 16.08 27.68 34.05 EBIT/销售收入 13.88% 13.61% 12.13% 11.99% 营业费用 60.52 63.80 109.79 135.08 EBITDA/销售收入 14.99% 16.79% 14.15% 13.64% 管理费用 200.66 211.56 364.05 447.90 销售净利率 12.73% 12.40% 11.16% 11.22% 财务费用 -1.32 -8.06 -5.77 -9.69 ROE 28.80% 23.47% 27.54% 26.21% 资产减值损失 22.77 40.00 45.00 50.00 ROA 11.23% 11.33% 8.57% 11.92% 加: 投资收益 6.30 10.00 10.00 10.00 ROIC 75.57% 50.88% 70.22% 262.34% 公允价值变动损益 -0.01 0.50........