DOC《PREDICTING CHINA IN 2013, THERE ARE DEEPER ...》

PREDICTING CHINA IN 2013, THERE ARE DEEPER MEANINGS BEHIND THE FAT YEARS Hong Kong writer Chan Koon-Chung'

s political fable The Fat Years―China,

2013 and American futurist writer John Naisbitt'

s China'

s Megatrends, have both attracted a lot of Attention with their predictions of China'

s future.

The Fat Years writes about China entering a prosperous period in 2013, where every citizen is fully satisfied,. But the protagonist sees something questionable in all of this. Naisbitt believes that since China does not experience any two-party conflicts that democratic countries do, and that they are essentially a one party system, they are in fact displaying a unique democracy, which leads them to stability. He believes that by 2050, China will become the center of the world. Twenty years ago, on November 9th, the wall which separated East and West Germany for

28 years collapsed, shocking the world and uniting Germany. This dissimilated the relationship between the former Soviet Union and the communist Eastern Europe. In the years to follow, during a commemorative ceremony of the collapse of the Berlin Wall, it was stated that Freedom must prevail in China, communist China must end. In fact, China seems to be entering in their fat years. In 2013, communist China will have new blood in their leadership. What will the new era of fat years be like? The world'

s political stage changed after the cold war, instead of being lead by the military, the world was lead by economics, and Asia became the largest beneficiary of this change, and in particular, China. Chinese people became pleased with themselves. The Chinese experiences, the Chinese model, and the Chinese way became the hot topic of discussion for people around the world. How to dissect the Chinese society and how to predict the future of Chinese society became the focus of people'

s inquiries. Hong Kong writer Chan Koon-chung has lived in Beijing for ten years, and recently published his political fable The Fat Years―China 2013. American futurist scholar John Naisbitt now divides his time between Vienna, Austria and Tianjin, China published his book China'

s Megatrends in September. In this newfound fascination with predicting China'

s future, these two books have attracted the most attention. This is the story of political fable The Fat Years―China 2013: in the year 2013, communist China goes through a major shift in administration. China is richer, stronger, more confident, and prouder than before. In 2011, the western countries once again experience an economic crisis, and the global economy enters a slump. Only China has the ability to escape this misfortune, with its economy on the rise and GDP at an all-time high. The country is happy, and the citizens are wholly satisfied with life. Their happiness is a sign of the fat years. China in

2013 is a picture of happiness At the heart of the story is Taiwanese writer Chen, who now lives in Beijing. He owns a house, has a stable life, and is content. China is no longer suffering, and the days are worry-free. He believes that the China before [his] eyes is great. Chen says, Don'

t think I am over-praising China. I know that there are problems that still exist in China, but consider this, the capitalist countries, lead by America, have self-destructed, and after the economic crisis in 2008, they did not even have the time to pick themselves back up before they entered another recession. They have taken the whole world down with them, with no survivors, except China is the only country who has managed to rise above all this…this has not only re-written the rules in international economics, but has also completely re-written western economics. Most importantly, our society did not experience any uprisings;