PDF《公司动态》

(一)纸张涨价;

(二)供应情况改善;

(三)煤和废纸价 格下跌. 来源: 彭博, 公司, 中国银河国际证券研究部 截至6月30 日止年度 收入 毛利润 毛利润率(%) 净利润 净利润率(%) 每股收益(基本) 净资产收益率(%) 股息收益率(%) 市盈率(倍) 市净率(倍) 资本开支(百万元) 每股自由现金流 净负债比率(%) 主要财务指标(百万元人民币) COMPANY NEWS Analyst: Mark Po Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited [2689.HK;

HK$16.40;

Not Rated] - Key takeaway from FY17 results presentation Market Cap: US$9,818m;

Free Float: 32.7%;

3-month Average Daily Turnover: US$25.1m September 25,

2017 Source: Bloomberg, Company Data, CGIS Research [Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited] Company background. Nine Dragons Paper (NDP) manufactures and sells paperboard packaging products and unbleached kraft paper. Recap of FY17 results: NDP'

s FY17 net profit was RMB4,383.7m, up 290.7% YoY from RMB1,121.7m. Excluding the impact of foreign exchange- related losses, the Company'

s adjusted net profit was up 68.1% YoY, reach- ing a record high of RMB4,765.3m. The adjusted net profit per tonne in- creased 68.7% YoY to RMB366 (1H FY17: RMB282 per tonne, 2H FY17: RMB467 per tonne). The Company'

s net gearing ratio decreased from 81.4% in FY16 to 74.6% in FY17. A final dividend of RMB0.25 per share was de- clared. The Company'

s total sales volume was down 0.4% YoY, from 13.07m tonnes in FY16 to 13.02m tonnes in FY17, and the ASP was up 23.2% YoY. The drop in sales volume was a result of selling less in Mar and Apr

2017 at the time when the industry ASP was low. NDP gained back pricing power, given an improved supply/demand situation. Stronger pricing power led to an improved margin and spread. NDP'

s gross profit per tonne, operating profit per tonne and net profit per tonne increased by 36.8% YoY, 47.6% YoY and 68.7% YoY, reaching RMB613, RMB469 and RMB366, respectively. Management remains positive on the Company'

s outlook. During the FY17 results presentation, management struck a positive tone on the outlook for the Company, as it was optimistic about the paper industry supply/ demand dynamics. Management estimated that paper capacity addition for the whole industry would be lower than the 5m-6m tonnes estimated by the market due to the environmental protection issue. Management reiterated that it is getting more difficult to install new paper production capacity be- cause of more stringent environmental protection controls. China remains one of the fastest-growing markets for packaging paper in the world. NDP guided FY18 sales volume of 13.0-13.3m tonnes, due to ramping up new production facilities in Vietnam by the end of 2017. NDP'

s sales volume will be largely flat YoY at around 6.8m tonnes in 1H FY18, while 2H FY18 sales volume could mildly increase YoY to about 6.5m tonnes, up from 5.9m tonnes in 2H FY17. NDP'

s 2m tonne expansion plan is on track to commence production by the end of 2018. The net profit per tonne in Jul-Aug was better than the level in Apr-Jun 2017, which was the lowest level in 1H 2017. We believe that the Company'

s net profit per tonne will report a YoY increase in FY18, given the price hike and continued improvement in efficiency. We have seen a series of major price hikes by Chinese paper makers since Aug 2017, which is mainly due to: a) capacity shut down amid pollution con- trols, and b) tight waste paper supply, partly due to the recent suspension of imports of unsorted waste paper. Management mentioned that the Xingtai local government had requested a 50% production cut by paper makers from