PDF《全球天然气市场最新消息》

28 and 29, which triggered a 7% rally in oil prices on Friday (June 29), the risk remains that failure to sufficiently build the market'

s confidence in the system may ultimately weigh on global economic growth relative to our economists'

current expectations. In line with these continuing risks, we are closing our trading recommendation to buy 3Q2012 UK NBP contracts at a loss of 5.2p/th, as the aforementioned macro headwinds have significantly lowered the risk/reward of the trade.

2012 年6月30 日 全球 高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究

3 Current trading recommendations Source: Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research. Closing: Long UK Natural Gas Buy 1.17 3Q

2012 ICE UK NBP natural gas April 11,

2012 - Global Gas Watch 59.4 p/th 56.2 p/th (5.2 p/th) Rolled from a long 4Q

2012 UK NBP Natural Gas position with a potential loss of 1.3 p/th Long Nov-12 CBOT Soybeans vs. short Dec-12 CBOT Corn Buy

1 Nov-12 CBOT soybean, sell 1.5 Dec-12 CBOT corn June 29,

2012 - Agriculture Update $0.00/bu Long Sep-12 LME Aluminium call options Long Sep-12 LME Aluminium calls with $2,150/t strike June 11,

2012 - Metal Detector $18.8/t $7.0/t ($11.8/t) Short Sep-12 vs. Dec-12 CBOT Corn timespreads Sell Sep-12 CBOT corn and buy Dec-12 CBOT corn March 30,2012 - Agriculture Update ($0.11/bu) $0.06/bu $0.17/bu Intially recommended combined with a long Jul-12 CBOT $7.30/bu corn call position which expired worthless Long WTI Crude Oil Buy September

2012 NYMEX WTI Crude Oil February 22,

2012 - Energy Weekly $107.55/bbl $85.37/bbl ($22.18/bbl) Long Gold Buy December

2012 COMEX Gold October 11,

2010 - Precious Metals $1,800.5/toz $1,608.7/toz $232.1/toz Rolled from a long Dec-11 COMEX Gold future position on 13-Nov-11 with a potential gain of $423.9/toz Long summer

2013 NYMEX Natural Gas Buy summer

2013 NYMEX natural gas (April-October contracts) April 11,

2012 - Natural Gas Watch $3.35/mmBtu $3.54/mmBtu $0.19/mmBtu ?As of close on June 29, 2012. Inclusive of all previous rolling profits/losses. Current profit/(loss)1 Current trades First recommended Initial value Current Value

2012 年6月30 日 全球 高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究

4 Price actions, volatilities and forecasts units

28 Jun Change Implied2 Change Realized2 Change 4Q

10 1Q

11 2Q

11 3Q

11 4Q

11 1Q

12 3m 6m 12m Energy ? -13.17 ? -15.75 ? -0.28 ? -0.28 ? 0.15 ? 0.94 Industrial Metals4 ? -177 ? -300 ? -785 ? -116 Precious Metals ? -19 ? -212.3 Agriculture ?

66 ?

22 ?

74 ? -4 ? -5 ?

116 ? 1.6 ? 1.7 ? 8.7

1 Monthly change is difference of close on last business day and close a month ago.

2 Monthly volatility change is difference of average volatility over the past month and that of the prior month (3-mo ATM implied volatility, 1-mo realized volatility).

3 Price forecasts refer to prompt contract price forecasts in 3-, 6-, and 12-months time.

4 Based on LME three month prices. RBOB Gasoline $/gal 2.61 30.2 3.07 129.00 Brent Crude Oil $/bbl 91.36 32.6 6.20 27.8 7.6 87.45 105.52 3.19 2.89 2.62 2.68 3.10 3.06 2.90 4.18 27.1 115.00 122.50 120.00 127.50 102.34 89.54 116.99 112.09 109.02 118.45 94.06 103.03 8.3 2.22 3.30 4.00 2.50 2.10 2.82 Volatilities (%) and monthly changes2 Prices and monthly changes1 WTI Crude Oil $/bbl Price Forecasts3 77.69 34.6 7.30 29.7 Historical Prices 85.24 94.60 9.8 125.00 NYMEX Nat. Gas $/mmBtu 2.72 54.8 3.16 4.22 20.5 5.2 2.36 3.98 4.20 NYMEX Heating Oil $/gal 2.55 27.8 4.06 3.48 2.97 65.6 8.2 3.05 2.98 2.98 4.38

2400 2400

2219 2200 56.77 58.04 57.03 61.56 77.80 77.90 3.53 3.47 3.31 LME Aluminum $/mt