PDF《(2689. 2689.HK)》

2018 2nd Q of

2019 Chongqing (Phase III) Linerboard 550,000 tpa 4th Q of

2018 4th Q of

2018 Hebei (Phase II) Linerboard 500,000 tpa 4th Q of

2018 2nd Q of

2019 Shenyang (Phase II) Linerboard 600,000 tpa 2nd Q of

2019 2nd Q of

2019 Dongguan Linerboard 600,000 tpa 2nd Q of

2019 3rd Q of

2019 Quanzhou (Phase III) Linerboard 650,000 tpa 2nd Q of

2019 NA Source: Phillip Securities, Company Page |

3 | PHILLIPSECURITIES (HK) RESEARCH 玖龙纸业 玖龙纸业 玖龙纸业 玖龙纸业( ( ( (2689.HK) ) ) ) 公司研报 公司研报 公司研报 公司研报 估值结论 估值结论 估值结论 估值结论 我们维持玖纸买入评级,预测市盈率6.5倍,目标价下调至12.1元.需要留意 的投资风险包括废纸政策再度转变,国内废纸价格大幅下跌,以及进口配额 未如预期.(现价截至2018年11月16日) Figure: Historical P/E ratios Source: Bloomberg, Phillip Securities Figure:Peers'

PE ratio comparison Market Price PE Ratio 02689Nine Dragons Paper 7.89 4.15 02314Lee &

Man Paper 6.86 5.29 02002China Sunshine Paper 1.33 2.37 01812ShandongChenming Paper 4.86 4.19 00731Samson Paper 0.49 2.85 Source: Bloomberg, Phillip Securities Page |

4 | PHILLIPSECURITIES (HK) RESEARCH 玖龙纸业 玖龙纸业 玖龙纸业 玖龙纸业( ( ( (2689.HK) ) ) ) 公司研报 公司研报 公司研报 公司研报 财务报告 财务报告 财务报告 财务报告 FYE

2016 2017

2018 2019E 2020E Valuation Ratios Price to Earnings (P/E) 29.11 7.45 4.17 4.23 3.80 Price to Book (P/B) 1.24 1.09 0.90 0.78 0.69 Per Share Data (RMB) EPS 0.24 0.94 1.68 1.65 1.84 Book Value Per Share 5.66 6.44 7.76 8.92 10.21 Dividend Per Share 0.13 0.3 0.5 0.50 0.55 Growth (%) Revenue 6.65% 22.01% 34.80% 10.00% 10.82% Gross Profit 24.28% 36.08% 45.25% 0.23% 12.48% Operating Income 33.66% 51.48% 59.05% -2.64% 11.55% Net Profit -21.07% 283.65% 78.27% -1.60% 11.38% Margins (%) Gross Profit Margin 18.26% 20.37% 21.95% 20.00% 20.30% Operating Profit Margin 13.50% 16.76% 19.77% 17.50% 17.61% Net Profit Margin 3.58% 11.26% 14.89% 13.32% 13.39% Key Ratios ROE (%) 4.35% 14.66% 21.68% 18.56% 18.06% ROA (%) 1.71% 6.66% 10.10% 8.65% 8.41% Income Statement (RMB,Mn) Revenue 32,093 39,155 52,782 58,060 64,343 - Cost of Goods Sold -26,231 -31,179 -41,197 -46,448 -51,281 Gross Income 5,861 7,976 11,585 11,612 13,062 - SG&

A expenses -1,784 -1,980 -2,342 -2,555 -2,831 Operating Income 4,331 6,561 10,435 10,159 11,332 Pretax Income 1,667 5,435 9,551 9,399 10,468 - Minority Interest

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14 Net Profit 1,122 4,384 7,848 7,723 8,601 Net Profit(adjusted) 2,894 4,783 7,857 7,723 8,601 Source: Company, Phillip Securities (HK) Research Estimates Exchange rate(0.8868) is one year HKD/CNY forward contract price on 16th November from Wind (Financial figures as at 16h November 2018) PHILL 玖龙纸业 玖龙纸业 玖龙纸业 玖龙纸业( ( ( (2689.HK) ) ) ) 公司研报 公司研报 公司研报 公司研报 PHILLIP RESEARCH STOCK SELECTION SYSTEMS We do not base our recommendations entirely on the above quantitative return bands. We consider qualitative factors like (but not limited to) a stock'

s risk reward profile, market sentiment, recent rate of share price appreciation, presence or absence of stock price catalysts, and speculative undertones surrounding the stock, before making our final recommendation GENERAL DISCLAIMER This publication is prepared by Phillip Securities (Hong Kong) Ltd ( Phillip Securities ). By receiving or reading this publication, you agree to be bound by the terms and limitations set out below. This publication shall not be reproduced in whole or in part, distributed or published by you for any purpose. Phillip Securities shall not be liable for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of material contained in this publication. The information contained in this publica........