PDF《The Solar Deployment System》

Technical Report NREL/TP-6A2-45832 September

2009 The Solar Deployment System (SolarDS) Model: Documentation and Sample Results Paul Denholm, Easan Drury, and Robert Margolis National Renewable Energy Laboratory

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2009 The Solar Deployment System (SolarDS) Model: Documentation and Sample Results Paul Denholm, Easan Drury, and Robert Margolis Prepared under Task No. PVD9.1210 NOTICE This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States government. Neither the United States government nor any agency thereof, nor any of their employees, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information, apparatus, product, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States government or any agency thereof. The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States government or any agency thereof. Available electronically at http://www.osti.gov/bridge Available for a processing fee to U.S. Department of Energy and its contractors, in paper, from: U.S. Department of Energy Office of Scientific and Technical Information P.O. Box

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22161 phone: 800.553.6847 fax: 703.605.6900 email: [email protected] online ordering: http://www.ntis.gov/ordering.htm Printed on paper containing at least 50% wastepaper, including 20% postconsumer waste iii Executive Summary The Solar Deployment System (SolarDS) model is a geospatially rich, bottom-up, market-penetration model that simulates the potential adoption of photovoltaics (PV) on residential and commercial rooftops in the continental United States through 2030. SolarDS was developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to examine the market competitiveness of PV based on regional solar resources, capital costs, electricity prices, utility rate structures, and federal and local incentives. SolarDS calculations are run at a high level of disaggregation by calculating PV generation in

216 solar resource regions, shown in Figure ES-1, and combining PV output with state-based electricity rate distributions from

3000 utilities. Regional PV financial performance is used to simulate PV adoption rates for each customer type and building type. SolarDS then aggregates regional PV adoption to the state and national level. This document introduces the SolarDS model, describes how it works, and shows model results for a series of PV penetration scenarios. Figure ES-1. The

216 solar resource regions used in SolarDS with observation stations shown as red triangles. SolarDS Components Figure ES-2 shows the main components of the SolarDS model, which are described in detail below. Figure ES-2. SolarDS model structure iv 1. PV Performance Simulator. The PV performance simulator estimates the amount of electricity that a PV module of a given size will generate each hour, for hundreds of locations in the continental United States and for a variety of module orientations. Hourly PV performance is simulated at