PDF《The Solar Deployment System》

216 locations in the using solar insolation and weather data from Typical Meteorological Year (TMY) stations. PV output is calculated for multiple module orientations to characterize a range of roof types and orientations. 2. PV Annual Revenue Calculator. The annual revenue calculator combines the PV technical performance simulations with electricity rates, electricity rate structures, and building load simulations to calculate the expected annual savings for a multiple PV systems in each location. PV revenue is defined as the avoided cost of electricity and is calculated from the combination of hourly PV output and regional electricity rates. For residential buildings, annual PV revenues are calculated for both standard flat rates and time-of-use rates. For commercial buildings, annual revenues are calculated for standard flat rates, time-of-use rates, and demand-based rates. 3. PV Financial Performance Calculator. The financial performance calculator combines the annual revenue generated by a PV system with PV costs and financing assumptions to generate financial performance metrics for individual PV systems. PV costs are based on current price data and price projections from the Energy Information Agency (EIA) or the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Solar Energy Technologies Program (SETP) targets. Users can also specify their own PV cost projections or set PV learning rates (which characterize the decrease in cost with each doubling of cumulative installed capacity). Federal and state incentives are applied, reducing the up-front cost of PV systems. A distribution of financing parameters is used including cash payments, home-equity type loans, and conventional loans. For residential PV systems, the financial performance module calculates a time-to-net-positive cash flow as the base financial metric. For commercial systems, the internal rate of return (IRR) is calculated as the base financial metric. 4. PV Market Share Calculator. The PV market share calculator uses financial performance metrics (generated in the financial performance calculator) to simulate PV purchasing probabilities that are unique to each solar resource region, local utility electricity rate and rate structure, customer type, customer financing, panel orientations, building size, and building age. Financial performance metrics are used to calculate both the total potential PV market share (using market- penetration curves) and the adoption rate (using Bass diffusion). Different PV market-penetration curves are used to characterize residential and commercial customers in new and retrofit markets. 5. Regional Aggregator. The regional aggregator module combines the hundreds of thousands of PV adoption probabilities with the number of buildings associated with each unique system type, and aggregates PV adoption statistics to the state and national level. The number of residential and commercial buildings suitable for PV is generated using census data and projected into the future using population growth estimates. The total number of buildings that adopt PV is v calculated by combining PV purchasing probabilities with the total number of buildings suitable for PV and then aggregates over each system type and region to generate state and national PV adoption statistics. The model outputs the cumulative and annual installed PV capacity, the number of buildings with PV, fractional PV market share, and PV payback times at the state and national levels for each time period. SolarDS Results SolarDS simulates a wide range of installed PV capacity for a wide range of user- specified input parameters. In preliminary model runs, we have simulated PV market- penetration levels from