PDF《The Solar Deployment System》

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193 GW by 2030, as shown in Figure ES-3. SolarDS results are primarily driven by three model assumptions: (1) future PV cost reductions, (2) the maximum PV market share assumed for systems with a given financial performance, and (3) PV financing parameters and policy-driven assumptions, such as the possible future cost of carbon emissions. Cumulative Installed PV Capacity

0 25

50 75

100 125

150 175

200 2005

2010 2015

2020 2025

2030 PV Capacity (GW) PV Cost / Market Penetration / Finance &

Policy DOE SETP / Navigant / Aggressive DOE SETP / NEMS / Aggressive DOE SETP / Navigant / Base DOE SETP / NEMS / Base EIA / Navigant / Base EIA / NEMS / Base Figure ES-3. Cumulative installed PV capacity through

2030 for a range of model input parameters, including PV costs (EIA and DOE SETP), PV market adoption rates (NEMS and Navigant), and PV financing and policy assumptions (base case and aggressive case) The lower range of........