编辑: JZS133 2019-07-06

6 月伦铜和沪铜的波动区间分别为 [4300,4750]美元/吨、[33000,36500]元/吨. 以上研判仅供参考,请投资者理性投资,防范风险. 大宗商品与期货月度报告 -

3 - SUMMARY ? Crude Oil: Crude oil prices rose to $45-50/bbl., which was once intensive transaction interval. Supply shocks from Canada and Nigeria override the high inventory pressure and push the price to a high position. In the long term, with the excess inventory digestion, oil prices will stay at an equilibrium position in the next two years. ? Iron Ore: It was a black month for black commodities. As we expected last month, the iron ore price dropped off nearly 25%, back to the original low position. In future, supply is still plenty. The demand will not be optimistic. Real estate and other terminal demand will enter the off-season. Thus, we expect iron ore prices probably remain weak. ? Copper: As expected, copper prices turned weak in May. Multiple negative factors helped the copper prices fall. After the first quarter, seasonal factors will fade.Demand will fall back to a relatively low position, while the output growth rate stabilized at 5% nearby. On the macroeconomic environment, Chinese authority put forward L type theory and the Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates. Both put pressure on copper price. We expect it will maintain a downward trend. Range Forecast Range Unit Crude Oil [42, 53] $/BBL TSI Iron Ore [41,51] $/T DCE Iron Ore [315, 380] $/T LME Copper [4300,4750] $/T SHFE Copper [3300,36500] $/T 大宗商品与期货月度报告 -

4 - 目录

一、 建行商品指数持续下跌

5

二、 原油市场:供给冲击提升短期油价,影响消退后将面临回落.6

(一) 走势回顾:高库存与供给冲击并存,原油价格先抑后扬.6

(二) EIA 及IEA 下调

2016 年原油供应过剩预测,OPEC 预测维持不变.7

(三) 供给冲击影响产量,下游需求表现平稳.9

(四) 后市展望:供给冲击影响渐消,中期回落长期上涨.11

三、 铁矿石及钢铁市场:高位反转回归弱势基本面

12

(一) 走势回顾:急转直下,二次探底.12

(二) 基本面分析:炒作终结市场回归弱势基本面.14

(三) 后市展望:二次探底延续,后市横盘震荡.21

四、 铜:开门红被证伪,铜价迎来拐点

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(一) 走势回顾:开门红被证伪,铜价大幅下跌.23

(二) 期货持仓情况:沪铜期货持仓快速回升,铜价开启下跌通道.24

(三) 现货库存:全球库存依然处在较高位置.25

(四) 下游需求:旺季尾声,各行业出现明显分化.27

(五) 后市展望:以震荡下行为主.30 大宗商品........

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