PDF《Pure Power》

s energy mix

28 4. The evolution of wind energy targets

36 a. Baseline scenarios from the European Commission, the EU Member States and the International Energy Agency

38 b. Three short-term predictions for the development of the EU wind power market (2011 C 2015)44 c. Can wind energy deliver?45 5.

2020 targets

46 a. Analysis of the National Renewable Energy Action Plans.47 b. EWEA scenarios

50 6. EWEA'

s

2030 target

56 7. Wind energy in electricity generation

62 a. Share of electricity produced by wind

63 b. Contribution of wind power to electricity generation capacity.65 c. Household demand

66 d. Electric cars.67 8. Wind energy and CO2

68 9. Wind energy and avoided fuel costs

72 10. Wind power investments

78 a. Capital costs

79 b. Total investments.80 c. Employment

82 11. Wind energy to

2050 84 Annexes / references

88 Annex

1 Cumulative installations of wind power in the EU (MW)89 Annex

2 Annual installations of wind power in the EU (MW)90 Annex

3 Renewables'

share of electricity consumption per Member State (%) in

2020 according to the NREAPs

91 Annex

4 Wind energy installations 2000-2030 (GW)92 Annex

5 Wind energy production and share of electricity consumption 2000-2030.93 Annex

6 Wind energy investments up to 2030.94 Annex

7 CO2 avoided from wind.95 References.96

1 Photo: Eon NATIONAL WIND ENERGY SCENARIOS FOR

2020 Pure Power C Wind energy targets for

2020 and

2030 5

1 Directive 2009/28/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of

23 April

2009 on the promotion of the use of energy from renewable sources and amending and subsequently repealing Directives 2001/77/EC and 2003/30/EC. The

2009 Renewable Energy Directive1 requires all Member States to submit National Renewable Energy Action Plans (NREAPs) to the European Commission by

30 June 2010. By

4 January 2011, all

27 NREAPs had been submitted. The NREAPs, which follow a template prepared by the European Commission, indicate estimates of gross final energy consumption of all types of energy (both renewable and non-renewable), for each year between

2010 and 2020. They also contain the expected contributions of the different types of energy for the three energy sectors: heating/cooling, electric- ity and transport. Furthermore they indicate a target for each renewable energy technology, including both onshore and offshore wind energy, and specify both total installed capacity (MW) and electricity production (MWh), for each year. Adding up the

27 NREAPs, with 213?GW of installed capacity, wind power is forecast to produce 495?TWh of electricity in 2020. Taking the

27 NREAPs'

additional energy efficiency scenario, EU gross electricity demand is scheduled to grow to 3,529? TWh in 2020. Wind energy would, therefore, meet 14% of the EU'

s demand. The European Commission'

s reference scenario, using the PRIMES energy model by the E3M Lab at the National Technical University of Athens in 2009, assumes 222?GW of installed wind capacity in

2020 producing 525?TWh of electricity. The same model esti- mates that the EU'

s total electricity demand in

2020 will be 3,690? TWh. Hence, wind energy would meet 14.2% of total consumption, according to the European Commission. In addition to the NREAPs and the European Commission'

s reference scenario, during

2009 EWEA analysed the wind energy markets in the

27 EU Member States in consultation with its member com- panies and national wind energy associations. This chapter provides the results of this analysis in the form of two