PDF《A CHANGE OF PACE IN CHINESE CONSUMER》

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com A CHANGE OF PACE IN CHINESE CONSUMER SENTIMENT By Je? Walters, Youchi Kuo, Hubert Hsu, Carol Liao, David Jin, Waldemar Jap, and Vincent Lui JUST AS CHINA LEADS the world in economic growth, consumer optimism in China is stronger than in the rest of the world. Our latest consumer-sentiment survey, conducted by BCG'

s Center for Consumer and Customer Insight, found that the percentage of Chinese consumers who intend to spend more in the coming year is three times higher than it is in the U.S., Japan, and the major European markets.1 However, with the recent slowdown in China'

s previously hyper-fast economic growth, Chinese consumers have become more cautious. (See Exhibit 1.) While

27 percent of Chinese consumers plan to spend more in 2013, that is an

11 percent drop from last year'

s

38 percent. After nearly ten consecutive quarters of declining GDP growth since historical highs in 2010, China'

s growth has waned from the double digits to, most recently, less than

8 percent. As a result, Chinese consumers no longer retain the same optimism of years past. Last year, close to half of consumers said that the economy would improve within the next

12 months;

this year, the percentage dropped to

38 percent. Some Skepticism―For Now Consumers are tightening their belts, but their decreased spending should not be taken as a sign of ?nancial strain. Our survey found that very few consumers think they will earn less in the future, nor do they worry about losing their jobs. The majority―nearly

60 percent―are spend- ing less in order to save more. The house- hold savings rate in China reached a historic high of

38 percent of disposable income in 2012, versus

23 percent ten years ago, yet consumers still feel this isn'

t enough. Only

22 percent said their current savings meets their expectations. Chinese consumers save in order to be cautious, but China'

s relative lack of a reliable social-welfare system also makes them concerned about supporting their children and elders. The one-child policy has played a role as well. Most married by THE BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP 中国消费市场双重奏 魏杰鸿 郭又绮 中国经济增速放缓早已不是什么秘密 但中国消费者的整体信心仍旧保持 谨 慎乐观 更确切地说 谨慎的是低端消费 市场 而乐观的则是蓬勃的高端市场 换言之 中国已成为一个 双速并行 的 消费市场 乐观积极的 高速 市场主要由中 产和上层中产阶级以及富裕家庭组成

1 他们 同时也是热衷于网购的数字化消费阶层的主 力军 目前 中国城市消费总额约为3.2万亿美 元 其中1.7万亿美元来源于这些 高速 消费 者 随着收入的不断增长 中产阶级及以上 家庭的队伍日益壮大 从现在起至2020年 中国 高速 家庭的总数将从8,100万户增至 1.42亿户 到2020年 这些家庭的总支出预 计将达3.8万亿美元 在5.6万亿美元城市消 费总额中占据主导地位 随着地位不断上升 以及收入日益增长 这些家庭的消费支出增 长将在当前至2020年期间的消费增长总额中 占90% 参阅图1 以上是BCG中国消费者洞察智库在中国 开展的年度消费者信心调查中的最新发现

2 收入增加以及消费者对未来收入增长的 乐观态度 为中国的消费增长注入了源源动 力 调查发现 过去一年内收入增长超过5% 的家庭与收入增速相对缓慢的家庭相比 前 者在下一年增加消费支出的可能性约为后者 的两倍 根据此次调查 中国股市回升与消 费者乐观情绪的增长之间并没有明显的相互 联系 在股民和非股民家庭中 消费者信心 水平基本相同 在收入普遍增长浪潮下 收入较高的家 庭获益更多 富裕家庭的收入增幅预计达到 近11% 而准中产阶级家庭的平均增幅仅为 6%