PDF《云南白药 （000538.CH）》

机构股票研究 机构股票研究 机构股票研究 机构股票研究 Page |

1 | PHILLISECURITIES (HK) RESEARCH 云南白药 云南白药 云南白药 云南白药 (000538.

CH) 混改落地助力发展新阶段 混改落地助力发展新阶段 混改落地助力发展新阶段 混改落地助力发展新阶段 中国 中国 中国 中国 | 医药 医药 医药 医药| 公司研报 公司研报 公司研报 公司研报

6 January

2017 品牌延展能力强 品牌延展能力强 品牌延展能力强 品牌延展能力强 云南白药原本生产并销售具有止血功能的抗感染中药 白药 ,白药配方为国家 级保密配方,无直接竞争者,定价能力强.近年来,公司积极实施以 药 为本的 新白药、大健康 的发展战略,重点发展四大业务板块:药品板块以云南白药中央/ 透皮产品为成熟现金牛品种,普药则以气血康口服液、血塞通胶囊的一系列新品推动 稳健增长;

健康产品板块在确保白药牙膏较快增长的情况下,重点推进养元青洗发护 发系列、清逸堂卫生巾系列;

中药资源板块则利用云南道地天然植物药材的资源优势 构建原材料资源全产业链;

此外,公司医药商业板块亦不断通过管道的持续完善为公 司贡献稳定的收入. Sales Breakdown in

2015 Source: Company reports, Phillip Securities (HK) Research 值得一提的是,在推动新战略过程中,公司品牌延展能力凸显,云南白药牙膏已 成为市场份额前三的知名品牌,且是市场份额前五中唯一国产品牌.藉此,公司成为 过去十多年医药股中的长跑冠军. 混改落地助力发展新阶段 混改落地助力发展新阶段 混改落地助力发展新阶段 混改落地助力发展新阶段 根,新华都拟向公司控股股东白药控股增资约人民币

254 亿元.交易完成 后,白药控股的股权结构将由云南省国资委持有 100%股权变更为云南省国资委和新华 都各持有 50%股权,同时,白药控股仍持有公司 41.52%的股份,本次事项亦触发上市 公司层面的要约收购. 混改完成后,集团控股将由国有独资变为国有民营混合,并且民营拥有足够股东 表决话语权,这将令云南白药的管理模式趋於灵活和市场化(未来白药控股的董事、 监事及高级管理人员均以市场化原则进行选聘),并为上市公司未来推进股权激励奠 定基础,同时,公司的外延并购亦有望提速,新业务拓展或步入新台阶,未来有望在 精准医疗、养老养生、医疗服务等大健康领域加快布局,推动公司进入发展新阶段. 买入 买入 买入 买入 (首次 首次 首次 首次) 现价: CNY 73.90 (现价截至

1 月4日) 目标价: CNY 90.60 (+22.6%) 公司资料 公司资料 公司资料 公司资料 普通股股东 (百万股) : 1,041 市值 (人民币百万元) : 76,930

52 周 最高价/最低价 (人民币元) : 76.15/53.50 主要股东 主要股东 主要股东 主要股东, , , , % 云南白药控股有限公司 : 41.52 股价表现 股价表现 股价表现 股价表现, , , , %

1 个月 个月 个月 个月

3 个月 个月 个月 个月

1 年年年年云南白药 6.41 6.41 1.45 沪深

300 9.74 2.05 12.84 股价 股价 股价 股价 &

沪深 沪深 沪深 沪深

300 Source: Phillip Securities (HK) Research 财务资料 财务资料 财务资料 财务资料 CNY mn FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E Net Sales

18722 20634

23158 25372 Net Profit

2506 2771

3077 3430 EPS, CNY 2.41 2.66 2.95 3.29 PER, x 30.66 27.78 25.01 22.44 BVPS, CNY 10.74 12.90 15.25 17.95 P/BV, x 6.88 5.73 4.84 4.12 ROE, % 24.80 22.51 20.86 19.73 Debt/Equity (%) 44.68 42.60 42.86 42.86 Source: Company reports, Phillip Securities Est. 研研研研研 范国和 范国和 范国和 范国和 (+

86 21 51699400-110) [email protected] Page |

2 | PHILLISECURITIES (HK) RESEARCH 云南白药 云南白药 云南白药 云南白药( ( ( (000538 CH) ) ) ) 公司研报 公司研报 公司研报 公司研报 还值一提的是,此次混改触发了云南白药的全面要约收购,且未来不以终 止云南白药的上市地位为目的.考虑到收购价格高达 64.98 元,仅较停牌前低 6.1%,将为股价提供较强支撑. 估值低於同业 估值低於同业 估值低於同业 估值低於同业 云南白药系内地中药领军企业,近几年布局大健康亦实现明显成效,而本 次控股股东混改推进速度快、审批效率高均为行业少有,有望成为行业标杆性 事件.考虑公司原主业稳健发展及深厚的品牌资源价值,集团混改又将带来新 一轮发展机遇,给予其对应

2017 年每股收益 27.5 倍估值,目标价为 90.6 元, 首予 买入 评级.(现价截至

1 月4日) Historical P/E Valuation Source: Bloomberg, Phillip Securities (HK) Research Peer Comparison Ticker Company Name Mcap (M) Performance(6M Ret) P/E(2015) P/E(2016F) P/E(2017F)

600085 CH BEIJING TONGRENTANG CO-A 42,378 5.32% 47.91 43.22 37.55

600436 CH ZHANGZHOU PIENTZEHUANG PHA-A 27,421 2.00% 58.77 46.14 36.65

600557 CH JIANGSU KANION PHARMACEUTI-A 10,806 7.21% 29.63 27.61 23.63

600518 CH KANGMEI PHARMACEUTICAL CO-A 87,467 16.52% 28.38 25.81 21.10

600329 CH TIANJIN ZHONG XIN PHARM CO-A 11,246 4.23% 29.38 28.44 20.99

000423 CH DONG-E-E-JIAOCO LTD-A 35,618 6.19% 21.92 19.61 16.85

002275 CH GUILIN SANJIN PHARMACEUTI-A 10,948 1.59% 29.08 - -

600535 CH TASLY PHARMACEUTICAL GROUP-A 44,289 15.53% 29.70 29.55 25.60

600252 CH GUANGXI WUZHOU ZHONGHENG G-A 15,985 6.22% 30.67 - - Average 31,795 7.20% 33.94 31.48 26.05

000538 CH YUNNAN BAIYAO GROUP CO LTD-A 77,314 16.69% 26.77 25.00 21.80 Source: Bloomberg, Phillip Securities (HK) Research 风险 风险 风险 风险 日化产品增速低於预期;

主要原材料价格上涨;

国企改革效果低於预期. Page |

3 | PHILLISECURITIES (HK) RESEARCH 云南白药 云南白药 云南白药 云南白药( ( ( (000538 CH) ) ) ) 公司研报 公司研报 公司研报 公司研报 财务报告 财务报告 财务报告 财务报告 Periodicity: Periodicity: Periodicity: Periodicity:

2013 2013

2013 2013

2014 2014

2014 2014

2015 2015

2015 2015 2016F 2016F 2016F 2016F 2017F 2017F 2017F 2017F Price Earnings 33.19 30.66 27.78 25.01 22.44 Price to Book 8.52 6.88 5.73 4.84 4.12 Dividend Yield 0.45% 0.68% 0.81% 0.81% 0.89% EPS Adjusted 2.23 2.41 2.66 2.95 3.29 Book Value Per Share 8.67 10.74 12.90 15.25 17.95 Dividends Per Share 0.33 0.50 0.60 0.60 0.66 Revenue growth 14.51% 18.96% 10.21% 12.23% 9.56% Gross profit growth 11.29% 20.84% 11.55% 11.55% 9.25% Net profit growth 46.71% 7.95% 10.56% 11.06% 10.29% Gross Margin 29.36% 29.82% 30.18% 30.00% 30.20% Operating Margin 12.47% 14.63% 14.57% 14.40% 14.60% Net Profit Margin 14.75% 13.39% 13.43% 13.29% 13.52% Dividend Payout Ratio % 14.97% 20.75% 22.56% 20.31% 20.04% Return on Assets 19.72% 17.15% 15.55% 14.61% 13.81% Return on Equity 28.92% 24.80% 22.51% 20.86% 19.73% Liability ratio 29.91% 30.88% 29.87% 30.00% 30.00% Effective Tax Rate 14.06% 14.19% 14.30% 14.20% 14.20% Revenue Revenue Revenue Revenue 15,738 15,738 15,738 15,738 18,722 18,722 18,722 18,722 20,634 20,634 20,634 20,634 23,158 23,158 23,158 23,158 25,372 25,372 25,372 25,372 - Cost of Goods Sold 11,118 13,139 14,406 16,210 17,710 Gross Income Gross Income Gross Income Gross Income 4,620 4,620 4,620 4,620 5,583 5,583 5,583 5,583 6,228 6,228 6,228 6,228 6,947 6,947 6,947 6,947 7,662 7,662 7,662 7,662 - Selling, General &

Admin Expenses 2,658 2,844 3,221 3,613 3,958 Operating Income Operating Income Operating Income Operating Income 1,962 1,962 1,962 1,962 2,739 2,739 2,739 2,739 3,006 3,006 3,006 3,006 3,335 3,335 3,335 3,335 3,704 3,704 3,704 3,704 - Interest Expense

21 46

79 70

60 - Net Non-Operating Losses (Gains) -764 -217 -284 -300 -330 Pretax Income 2,701 2,910 3,215 3,567 3,974 - Income Tax Expense

380 413

460 506

564 Income Before XO Items 2,321 2,497 2,756 3,060 3,410 - Minority Interests

0 -9 -15 -17 -20 Net Profit Net Profit Net Profit Net Profit 2,321 2,321 2,321 2,321 2,506 2,506 2,506 2,506 2,771 2,771 2,771 2,771 3,077 3,077 3,077 3,077 3,430 3,430 3,430 3,430 Income Statement(CNY: mn) Income Statement(CNY: mn) Income Statement(CNY: mn) Income Statement(CNY: mn) Valuation Ratios Valuation Ratios Valuation Ratios Valuation Ratios Per share data(CNY) Per share data(CNY) Per share data(CNY) Per share data(CNY) Growth &

Margin Growth &

Margin Growth &

Margin Growth &

Margin Key ratios Key ratios Key ratios Key ratios Source: Company, Phillip Securities (HK) Research Estimates (财务资料截至

1 月4日) PHILL 云南白药 云南白药 云南白药 云南白药( ( ( (000538 CH) ) ) ) 公司研报 公司研报 公司研报 公司研报 PHILLIP RESEARCH STOCK SELECTION SYSTEMS We do not base our recommendations entirely on the above quantitative return bands. We consider qualitative factors like (but not limited to) a stock'

s risk reward profile, market sentiment, recent rate of share price appreciation, presence or absence of stock price catalysts, and speculative undertones surrounding the stock, before making our final recommendation GENERAL DISCLAIMER This publication is prepared by Phillip Securities (Hong Kong) Ltd ( Phillip Securities ). By receiving or reading this publication, you agree to be bound by the terms and limitations set out below. This publication shall not be reproduced in whole or in part, distributed or published by you for any purpose. Phillip Securities shall not be liable for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of material contained in this publication. The information contained in this publication has been obtained from public sources which Phillip Securities has no reason to believe are unreliable and any analysis, forecasts, projections, expectations and opinions (collectively the Research ) contained in this publication are based on such information and are expressions of belief only. Phillip Securities has not verified this information and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made that such information or Research is accurate, complete or verified or should be relied upon as such. Any such information or Research contained in this publication is subject to change, and Phillip Securities shall not have any responsibility to maintain the information or Research made available or to supply any corrections, updates or releases in connection therewith. In no event will Phillip Securities be liable for any special, indirect, incidental or consequential damages which may be incurred from the use of the information or Research made available, even if it has been advised of the possibility of such damages. Any opinions, fore........