PDF《DHL GLOBAL TRADE BAROMETER – WORLD》

DHL GLOBAL TRADE BAROMETER C WORLD December

2018 World Trade enters new year with growth expected to further moderate, according to DHL Global Trade Barometer Key findings: ? Stable world trade growth expected, despite index showing an ongoing mild downward trend (-1) with

60 points in December ? Slowing global air trade reflected in an index value of 58, a decrease by -2 points compared to the previous release in November, driven by significant decelerations in Germany and China ? World ocean trade remains stable at

61 points, with a very strong development in India stabilizing the outlook DHL Global Trade Barometer C World Index

2013 C present,

50 = no change DHL Global Trade Barometer C World Indexes C latest four months Sep'18 Oct'18 Nov'18 Dec'18 World Trade

63 62

61 60 Air Trade

62 62

60 58 Ocean Trade

63 61

61 61 The DHL Global Trade Barometer continues to forecast a solid growth for global trade as the index hits 60, representing a slight decrease (-1 points) compared to the previous release in November.

Air trade is expected to grow at a slower pace (58 points), dropping -2 points. However, with an index value of

61 points global ocean trade remains at a fairly stable path of moderate growth. The slight slowdown of world trade is mainly due to a weakened growth outlook for South Korea (-3 points) and particularly Germany (-5 points). With

51 points, Germany undercuts the UK and now features the lowest value of all GTB countries, but still remains just above

50 points, which marks the threshold for a positive outlook on trade growth. With a -1 point decline each, China, the US and the UK are also responsible for this slight decline in global trade. Meanwhile, India remains strong (+2 points) and maintains the brightest overall outlook with an index value of

75 points. Japan's trade growth prediction improved, too, by +1 points scoring

59 points. The global air trade outlook remains relatively moderate at

58 index points despite dropping -2 points compared to November. All surveyed countries are expected to slow down except for the US (+1 point) and India (+3 points). The largest drop in air trade growth is expected for Germany (-5 points) and China (-4 points). The outlook for global ocean trade remains stable at

61 points. The decline in the US (-2 points), South Korea (-3 points) and in Germany (-5 points) C German ocean trade especially ocean exports of land vehicles & parts are forecasted to drop below

50 points and thus decline C is compensated by the expected acceleration for India (+3 points), the UK (+2 points) and China (+2 points), whereas Japan shows no change. DHL Global Trade Barometer C World Country developments Sep Oct Nov Dec China

59 58

58 57 Germany

58 57

56 51 USA

63 65

61 60 India

83 75

75 77 United Kingdom

57 52

53 52 Japan

64 61

58 59 South Korea

69 63

64 61 Dec'18 index: predicting Dec'18- Feb'19 trade development Page

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2 For further information, please contact: Deutsche Post DHL Group Media Relations David St?ppler Phone: +49

228 182-9944 E-mail: [email protected] About the DHL Global Trade Barometer: The DHL Global Trade Barometer an early indicator for the current state and future development of global trade. It is based on import and export data for a number of intermediates and early-cycle commodities that serve as the basis for further industrial production. Sources for the index are aggregated market data from air and containerized ocean freight from seven countries (China, South Korea, Germany, India, Japan, UK, USA), which account for more than

75 percent of world trade. These data are evaluated using artificial intelligence and various statistical methods and compressed to a single index value that represents the weighted average of the current growth and the upcoming two months of trade. The index, which was designed in cooperation with Accenture, is published four times a year by DHL on a global scale as well as for each of the seven countries surveyed. About DHL: Being the world's leading logistics provider, DHL is ideally equipped to derive a global trade outlook from logistics data. DHL has both, a deep understanding of the driving forces behind global trade volumes and the industry expertise to analyze and interpret occurring market data. With its family of divisions, DHL offers an unrivalled portfolio of logistics services ranging from national and international parcel delivery, e-commerce shipping and fulfillment solutions, international express, road, air and ocean transport to industrial supply chain management. DHL employs about 350,000 people in more than

220 countries and territories worldwide, reliably enabling global trade flows. With specialized solutions for growth markets and industries including technology, life sciences and healthcare, energy, automotive and retail, a proven commitment to corporate responsibility and an unrivalled presence in developing markets, DHL is decisively positioned as "The logistics company for the world". #DHL_gtb