PDF《能源市场周评》

2013 and in our model we assume a start-up in November 2013. In a similar fashion, we currently assume start-up dates for the new Permian pipelines (Longhorn, Permian Express and WTG expansion;

all scheduled for 1Q13) in late March, April and May, respectively, and model a slow ramp-up to full capacity on Longhorn pipeline. Despite these conservative assumptions, the expected draws in Cushing inventories starting in 2Q are still meaningful. Consequently, Cushing could clear much faster if these projects come online sooner than we currently build in, potentially offsetting the delay in the Whiting crude unit conversion. Exhibit 1: The Cushing balance is expected to shift into a large deficit in 2Q12 even as Whiting stays offline… Thousand b/d Exhibit 2: …pushing Cushing inventories sharply lower Million barrels Source: DOE and Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research. Source: DOE and Goldman Sachs Global ECs Research. -400 -300 -200 -100

0 100

200 300 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Cushing stocks Cushing balance Previously expected Cushing balance (assuming Whiting restarts in March 2013) Expected Cushing balance 30.0 32.0 34.0 36.0 38.0 40.0 42.0 44.0 46.0 48.0 50.0 Expected Cushing inventory path Previously expected Cushing inventory path (Whiting restarting March 2013) End of May

2013 End of June

2013 End of April

2013 End of March

2013 2012 年12 月20 日 高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究

4 Exhibit 3: Cushing balance Thousand b/d unless otherwise specified Source: DOE, Genscape and Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research. 1Q2010 2Q2010 3Q2010 4Q2010 1Q2011 2Q2011 3Q2011 4Q2011 1Q2012 2Q2012 3Q2012 4Q2012E 1Q2013E 2Q2013E 3Q2013E 4Q2013E 1Q2014E 2Q2014E 3Q2014E 4Q2014E Production*

283 300

301 301

309 313

320 330

341 353

354 372

381 389

390 390

390 390

390 390 Refinery?runs

723 789

802 705

734 750

796 738

778 794

822 772

757 800

827 759

756 781

272 0 Inflows

579 736

794 819

883 830

870 891

1032 1053

989 988

1062 960

993 968

1003 1038

1459 1494 PADD?4

27 24

27 25

25 27

36 43

52 59

55 53

55 55

55 55

55 55

55 55 White?Cliffs

27 24

27 25

25 27

36 43

52 59

55 53

55 55

55 55

55 55

55 55 PADD?3

256 340

385 393

394 403

425 447

459 457

449 479

475 329

310 258

267 276

85 93 Basin

256 310

329 339

336 345

361 386

395 399

382 411

411 264

245 194

202 211

20 29 Centurion

0 30

56 54

58 59

64 61

64 59

68 68

65 65

65 65

65 65

65 65 PADD?2

126 191

193 203

258 183

184 167

278 285

223 187

253 289

331 349

366 384

986 1004 Keystone

0 0

0 0

57 84

85 66

101 84

56 49

100 120

120 120

120 120

120 120 Spearhead

108 165

161 168

165 65

66 60

124 163

142 130

153 153

153 153

153 153

153 153 Rail?(Hawthorn)

18 27

32 35

36 34

33 41

53 38

25 9

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0 Flanagan?South

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

585 585 Mississippi?Lime?pipelines*

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 16

58 76

93 111

128 146 Adjustment?term

171 180

189 198

207 216

225 234

243 252

261 270

279 288

297 306

315 324

333 342 Adjustment?term

171 180

189 198

207 216

225 234

243 252

261 270

279 288

297 306

315 324

333 342 Outflows 21........