PDF《的模拟与分析*》

中国生态农业学报

2013 年8月第21 卷第8期Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture, Aug.

2013, 21(8): 1016?1022 * 国家自然科学基金项目(31060178)和干旱生境作物学重点实验室开放基金(GSCS-2010-11)资助 ** 通讯作者: 李广(1971―), 男, 博士, 教授, 主要从事农业信息技术等方面的研究.E-mail: [email protected] 董莉霞(1981―), 女, 硕士, 讲师, 主要从事信息技术研究.E-mail: [email protected] 收稿日期: 2012-12-26 接受日期: 2013-04-02 DOI: 10.3724/SP.J.1011.2013.01016 旱地春小麦产量对逐日最低温度和最高温度变化响应 的模拟与分析* 董莉霞

1 李广1,2** 刘强1燕振刚

1 罗珠珠

3 (1. 甘肃农业大学信息科学技术学院 兰州 730070;

2. 甘肃省干旱生境作物学重点实验室 甘肃农业大学 兰州 730070;

3. 甘肃农业大学资源与环境学院 兰州 730070) 摘要为了探索气温波动对旱地春小麦产量的影响, 对逐日最低温度和最高温度

2 个因素进行了

9 种水平 的交叉组合设计, 应用 APSIM(Agricultural Production System Simulator)模型模拟各种情况下春小麦产量, 采 用二次多项回归、单因素边际效应分析和通径分析研究春小麦产量对逐日最低温度和最高温度变化的响应. 结果表明: 当最高温度不变时, 最低温度每升高 0.25 , ℃ 最大增产 1.40%, 平均增产 1.34%, 最低温度升高对 春小麦产量的影响为正效应;

当最低温度不变时, 最高温度每增加 0.25 ℃, 最大减产 2.88%, 平均减产 2.42%, 最高温度升高对春小麦产量的影响为负效应, 产量随最高温度的升高呈二次抛物线下降变化;

最低温度和最 高温度之间存在负的协同效应, 最高温度升高造成春小麦的减产效应超过最低温度升高的增产效应.平均温 度的升高引起春小麦减产, 主要是由最高温度的升高引起的. 关键词 APSIM 模型 春小麦 产量 最低温度 最高温度 旱地 中图分类号: P467 文献标识码: A 文章编号: 1671-3990(2013)08-1016-07 Simulation analysis of spring wheat grain yield response to mean daily minimum and maximum temperature in drylands DONG Li-Xia1 , LI Guang1,2 , LIU Qiang1 , YAN Zhen-Gang1 , LUO Zhu-Zhu3 (1. College of Information Science and Technology, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou 730070, China;

2. Gansu Provincial Key Laboratory of Aridland Crop Sciences, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou 730070, China;

3. College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou 730070, China) Abstract To determine the effect of temperature fluctuation on spring wheat grain yield in drylands, a

2 *

9 factors design of daily minimum and maximum temperatures was set up. The spring wheat yield was simulated using the APSIM (Agricultural Production System Simulator) model under various conditions. Quadratic polynomial regression, single factor marginal effect analysis and path analysis were used to investigate the response of spring wheat yield to changes in daily minimum and maximum temperature. The results showed that the biggest increase in spring wheat grain yield was 1.40% (average of 1.34%) when daily minimum temperature increased by 0.25 ℃ with constant maximum temperature. Increase in minimum temperature had a positive effect on spring wheat yield. The biggest decrease in spring wheat grain yield was 2.88% (average of 2.42%) when daily maximum temperature increased by 0.25 ℃ with constant minimum temperature. Increase in maximum temperature had a negative effect on spring wheat yield. The best fit curve between spring wheat yield and maximum temperature was quadratic parabola, which indicated a decreasing tendency with increasing maximum temperature. The synergetic effect between minimum and maximum temperature on spring wheat yield was negative. The negative effect of increased maximum temperature on spring wheat yield was greater than the positive effect of increased minimum temperature on spring wheat yield. Thus decrease in spring wheat grain yield was mainly due to increase in maximum temperature. Key words APSIM model, Spring wheat, Grain yield, Minimum temperature, Maximum temperature, Dryland (Received Dec. 26, 2012;