PDF《观察与建议》

The Socioeconomic Implications of Population Aging in PRC 人口老龄化 对中国社会经济的影响 NO.

2010-1 观察与建议Observations &

Suggestions 观察与建议 ADB Disclaimer for Translated Documents 译文声明 This document has been translated from English in order to reach a wider audience. While the Asian Development Bank (ADB) has made efforts to verify the accuracy of the translation, English is the working language of ADB and the English original of this document is the only authentic (that is, official and authoritative) text. Any citations must refer to the English original of this document. 为扩大读者范围,特将该报告由英文翻译为中文.亚洲开发银行(亚行)尽力确保翻译的准确性.但英语是亚行的官方语 言,因此,该文件的英文原版为唯一具有权威性的(即正式的和授权的)文本.任何对该文件内容的引用,必须以其英文原版 内容为准. Abstract 摘要?While the best-known dimension of aging relates to fiscal sustainability due to spiraling pension and health care costs, the repercussions of aging are wider. The structure of the labor market, the pattern of savings, and migration flows will change in an aging society. More worryingly, aging will ultimately constrain economic growth. 众所周知,养老金和医疗卫生费用的螺旋式攀升,人口老龄化与财政可持续性密切相关,人 口老龄化对社会经济的影响越来越广.在一个老龄化社会,劳动力市场结构、储蓄模式和人 口流动规模都将发生变化.更令人担忧的是,人口老龄化将最终阻碍经济增长. ? Increased longevity and dramatic falls in fertility rates in PRC during the last three decades prompted the fastest demographic transition in the world. As a result, the size of the working- age population doubled. These favorable demographic trends underpinned economic reform by contributing to GDP growth and lifting per capita income. 在过去30年中,平均寿命的延长和出生率的显著下降,使中国成为世界上人口变化最快的国 家,劳动年龄人口增加了一倍.这些有利的人口变化趋势促进了经济增长,提高了人均收入 水平,支持了经济改革. ? However, since

2000 the population of the People'

s Republic of China (PRC) is aging, and its adverse effects will reverse the impact of demographic trends in the economy. Aging is particularly challenging in PRC for three reasons: the sheer magnitude of the population, the difficulties of aging at a relatively low level of income per capita and the poor safety net standards. 然而,自2000年以来,中国人口开始老龄化.老龄化的负面作用将抵消前些年人口转变所带 来的正面影响.人口老龄化给中国社会带来了三方面挑战:庞大的人口基数,在较低人均收 入水平下提前进入老龄化,薄弱的社会保障体系. ? In this context, determined policy actions are imperative to address the challenge, including measures to promote economic growth through productivity increases, strengthening safety nets, developing capital markets and accelerating pension reform. 为应对上述挑战,采取强有力的政策措施势在必行.这些政策措施包括:通过提高生产率促 进经济增长、加强社会保障体系建设、培育资本市场、加快养老制度改革. The Socioeconomic Implications of Population Aging in PRC 人口老龄化对中国社会经济的影响 I. INTRODUCTION 1. A population is said to be aging when the elderly segment grows faster than the total population, resulting from falling fertility rates and rising longevity. Aging can have adverse effects on economic performance that demand changes in social and economic policies to address the challenge. 2. While the best-known dimension of aging relates to fiscal sustainability due to spiraling health care and pension costs, the repercussions of aging are wider. The structure of the labor market, the pattern of savings, and migration flows will change in an aging society. More worryingly, aging will ultimately constrain economic growth. This is because in the absence of increases in total factor productivity and/or in the capital stock, labor supply shortages result in lower GDP growth. 3. Aging in developing economies is particularly complex because their populations age fast but at low levels of income . In addition, their labor markets tend to be largely imperfect with a significant share of the labor force in informal jobs under poor working conditions. At the same time, shortages of qualified workers hinder development because the new skills demanded to meet the needs of economic modernization are scarce. Structural constraints, including limited access to financial products and services, a restrictive business environment, and weak safety nets compound the difficulties of aging at an earlier stage of development. Culture can also influence the impact of aging. While in most developed economies the state plays a pivotal role in caring for the needs of old age, the elderly in Asia have traditionally relied on filial resources and family support. However, extended family networks are weakening, as traditional values change alongside economic reform and modernization, threatening the sustainability and effectiveness of the mechanism. 4. According to the United Nations definition the population of the People'