PDF《基于 APSIM 模型旱地春小麦产量 对温度和 CO2 浓度升高的...》

7 levels of temperature and CO2 concentration. Regression equations and path analyses were also used to analyze the response of spring wheat grain yield to the changes in temperature and CO2 concentration. The results showed that average increase in spring wheat grain yield was 4.9%, with a maximum increase of 14.6% when CO2 concentration increased by

100 mol・mol?1 at constant temperature. A quadratic parabola relationship was noted between spring wheat grain yield and CO2 concentra- 第8期李广等: 基于 APSIM 模型旱地春小麦产量对温度和 CO2 浓度升高的响应

1089 tion, which indicated an increasing tendency. Spring wheat grain yield increment reduced with further increases in CO2 concentration. Average drop in spring wheat grain yield was 6.1%, with a maximum drop of 14.2% when temperature increased by

1 ℃ at constant CO2 concentration. Also a quadratic parabola relationship was noted between spring wheat grain yield and temperature, which sug- gested a declining tendency. While synergy effects of temperature and CO2 concentration on spring wheat grain yield were positive, although negative temperature effects on grain yield were more obvious than positive CO2 concentration effects. The study concluded that global warming with increased temperature and CO2 concentration negatively affected dryland spring wheat grain yield in semi- arid China. Key words APSIM model, Dryland spring wheat, Grain yield, Temperature, CO2 concentration (Received Mar. 11, 2012;

accepted May 29, 2012) 全球地表平均温度近百年来(1906―2005 年)升 高了 0.74 ℃, 预计到

21 世纪末仍将上升 1.1~6.4 ℃ (IPCC, 2007).尽管预测的结果中还有一定的不确定 性, 但气候变化对人类的影响已成为公认的事实, 特别对严重依赖自然条件的旱作区粮食生产影响更 为严重. 小麦是世界上最重要的粮食作物之一, 小麦生 产对气候变化非常敏感. 据统计近

30 年小麦产量年 均升高 0.9%, 而近

20 年世界对小麦的需求量年均增 长1.6%[1?2] . 小麦丰歉对我国粮食总产量的提高也至 关重要.全球气候变化主要特点是温室气体增加, 特别是 CO2 浓度的增加, 导致气候变暖.CO2 浓度 和温度等重要生态因子的变化势必引起小麦生长发 育生理生态过程及其产量的变化[3?4] .大量研究表明: CO2 浓度增加可提高光合速率, 延长光合作用时间[5] , 提高小麦产量[4] .温度的升高主要通过对叶片净光 合速率的影响而影响小麦........