PDF《East and South East Asian》

Shi Shijun East and South East Asian Financial Integration in the Process of RMB Internationalisation Shi Shijun KAS-Schriftenreihe CHINA No.

103 (ch) Shanghai

2012 Publisher Shanghai Project Office of the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung in the PRC Room 1806, Overseas Chinese Mansion No.129, Yan'

an Xi Road, Shanghai

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6249 4549 E-mail: [email protected] Webpage: www.kas.de/china Person responsible: Dr. Peter Hefele, Director KAS Shanghai The content of this publication does not necessarily reflect the opinion or position of the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung. 发行: 德国阿登纳基金会上海办公室 地址: 上海市延安西路

129 号华侨大厦

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6249 4549 E-Mail: [email protected] 主页: www.kas.de/china 主编: 何彼得博士,德国阿登纳基金会上海办公室主任 文章内容仅代表笔者之观点,与阿登纳基金会立场无关.

3 阿登纳基金会研究项目 人民币国际化进程中的东亚金融一体化 石士钧 史龙祥 张帆

2012 年4月4Foreword The Asian financial crisis of 1997, which severly hit most of the countries in East and South East Asia, and the policy ma- nagement to overcome the crisis, has caused a lot of criti- cism on the established world financial and currency order in the region. Since then and due to these experiences several concepts have been developed towards a greater regional in- tegration of monetary policies and more effective financial stabilization mechanisms. At the same time and as a result of China'

s economic and po- litical rise the still not freely convertible Renminbi (RMB) has made remarkable steps towards becoming a regional (and to a lesser extent global) trade currency and as a possible fu- ture reserve currency. This development is also supported by an increasing influence of the People'

s Republic of China in international organisations like IMF or Worldbank. This development will probably continue and even speed up due to the current fiscal and economic crisis in the Euro zone and the weakness of the US Dollar. The study of Professor Shi Shijun, Shanghai Institute of For- eign Trade (SIFT), provides a concise overview on concepts of a closer regional financial integration in East Asia against the backdrop of the strategic goal of establishing the Ren- minbi as an international currency. It gives useful advice to political decision makers and experts in finance and banking on a possible reshaping of the financial and monetary land- scape of East and South East Asia. The insights given by this study are as well of high impor- tance for the City of Shanghai, which proclaims to be an in- ternational financial hub by 2020. The study is funded by the German Ministry of Economic Co- operation (BMZ). The content of this publication does not ne- cessarily reflect the opinion or position of the Konrad-Ade- nauer-Stiftung. Dr. Peter Hefele, Director KAS Shanghai

5 Content Executive Summary

12 1. Literature Review

18 1.1 Research on the internationalisation of sovereign currencies

18 1.1.1 Preconditions for the internationalisation of currencies

18 1.1.2 Comparative studies of the internationalisa- tion of sovereign currencies

20 1.2 Research on the constraints for and the path to- wards the internationalisation of the Renminbi

24 1.2.1 Constraints of the current system

24 1.2.2 Research on the direction of RMB internation- alisation

25 1.2.3 The RMB as a trade and settlement currency