PDF《格力电器》

公司报告 耐用品中国

2019 Powered by the EFA Platform Insert Insert 格力电器 库存偏高拖累一季度业绩

2019 年一季度收入同比增长放缓至 2.

5%,而2018 年四季度则增长 32%.增长放缓是 由于高渠道库存水平和季节性因素造成. 公司对新合营的投资开始影响运营开支,并可能对公司的盈利增长构成压力. 派息比率下降,反映格力正在保留现金,有可能用作并购. 由于珠海市政府将出售股份有憧憬,公司估值仍处于历史高位,但最终买家仍不明确. 格力的高渠道库存、较慢的每股盈利增长和历史高位估值,都使我们对该股份持谨慎态 度.我们将基准年推移至

2020 年,并将目标价从人民币

40 元升至人民币

44 元,并基 于估值考虑将评级降至「沽出」.我们继续给予格力 9.5 倍目标

2020 年市盈率.

2018 年一季度收入增长停滞不前 虽然格力

2018 年业绩符合市场预期, 但我们认为公司

2019 年一季度的收入增长令人失望. 格力的收入增长在

2019 年一季度同比放缓至 2.5%,而2018 年四季度则增长 32%.我们 认为增长放缓主要是由于

2018 年下半年填补销售渠道后渠道库存水平较高所致,但季节性 因素也有一些作用.CMM 数据(图2-7)显示,3 月空调零售额录得增长,因此我们预计 随着

2019 年二季度进入旺季,情况将出现一些改善.对于

2019 年,格力认为可实现低双 位数的增长.然而,我们认为

2018 年的高基数和高渠道库存可能会继续拖累格力的销售, 我们相信较有可能实现中单位数增长. 研发和销售费用对盈利增长造成压力 格力意识到其单一市场、单一产品的战略限制了公司的增长潜力.因此,该公司正在努力将 业务范围拓展至小型家电、智能设备和半导体等新业务.例如,格力的研发支出占销售额比 重从

2017 年的 2.4%增加到

2018 年的 3.5%.随着格力继续投资新产品线,我们认为销售 费用的增加也可能对公司的利润造成压力.近几年公司销售费用占销售额的比重从约 15% 降至

2015 -

16 年的 9.4%.但随着格力投资于新产品的开发和多元化收入组合,我们认为 销售和研发费用将增加,并对净利构成压力. 派息比率降至约 48% 从历史上看, 格力一直维持约 70%的派息率. 而尽管公司今年现金储备高达约人民币 1,130 亿元,但公司仍将派息率降至约 50%,这反映公司为并购活动保留现金. 估值偏高 最近几周,由于有消息称珠海政府正在寻求出售其持有的 18%格力股权,这将有助于改善 企业决策和改善管理层股权激励的措施.然而,目前谁是买方仍不确定,我们认为当前约

12 倍的动态市盈率估值不太可能持续(图8-9).鉴于公司偏高的渠道库存、缺乏新的及可 识别的长期增长动力,以及没有贯彻的企业战略,我们对格力未来的增长前景持谨慎态度. 格力的中国业务占总收入的约 88%,其收益几乎完全依赖于中国国内市场.基于此考虑, 我们认为格力应较同业海尔和美的存在折让.由于公司收入前景略有改善,我们将

2019 -

2020 年每股盈利预测上调 3%和4%,并将目标价基准年推至

2020 年.我们给予公司目标 价人民币

44 元,即下跌空间约 21%.如果在

2019 年下半年政府出台刺激家电销售政策, 我们认为格力的股价或价值每股人民币

47 元,相当于 15%下行空间. SOURCES: CGIS RESEARCH, COMPANY DATA, BLOOMBERG 中国 沽出 市场共识评级*: 买入

18 持有

5 沽出

2 前收盘价: Rmb55.6 目标价: Rmb44.0 此前目标价: Rmb40.0 上升/下跌空间: -21% 路透股票代号: 彭博股票代号:

000651 CH 市值: US$49,648m Rmb334,354m 平均每日成交额: US$440.1m Rmb2,957m 目前发行在外股数 6,016m 自由流通量: 50.0% *来源: 彭博 来源: 彭博 股价表现 1M 3M 12M 绝对表现 (%) 17.7 36.6 26.1 相对表现 (%) 18.1 17.1 26.2 主要股东 持股百分比 持股百分比 Zhuhai Gree Group 18.2 HKEX (Stock Connect) 11.6 Hebei Jinghai 8.9 Insert 分析员 Jeffrey Dorr T (852)

3698 6323 E [email protected] 张岸, CPA T (852)

3698 6293 E [email protected] 张富绅 T (852)

3698 6275 E [email protected] Company Note Durable ProductsChinaMay 6,

2019 Powered by the EFA Platform Insert Insert Gree Inventory Overhang Weighs on 1Q19 Results 1Q19 revenue slowed to 2.5% YoY vs. 32% growth in 4Q18. The slowdown was due to high channel inventory levels and seasonality. Investments in new ventures are beginning to impact Gree'

s OPEX line and may weigh on the Company'

s earnings growth. The payout ratio reduction indicates Gree is preserving cash, possibly for M&

A. Its valuation remains at a historical high on expectations of a Zhuhai government sell- down, but visibility on the end buyer(s) remains unclear. Gree'

s high channel inventory, slower EPS growth and historically high valuation make us cautious on the stock. We roll forward our forecast to

2020 and update our TP from RMB40 to RMB44, downgrading to SELL on valuation grounds. We continue to value Gree at 9.5x

2020 PER.

2018 results in line, revenue growth stalls in 1Q19 While Gree'

s

2018 results were in line with street expectations, we think 1Q19 revenue growth was a surprise to the downside. Gree'

s revenue slowed to 2.5% YoY in 1Q19 vs. 32% growth in 4Q18. We think the slowdown was mostly on account of high channel inventory levels following channel stuffing during 2H18, though seasonality may have also played a role. CMM data (Figures 2-7) shows retail sales for air conditioning picking up in March, so we expect 2Q19 to show some improvement moving into the peak season. For 2019, Gree believes low double-digit growth is achievable. However, we think the high base in

2018 and high channel inventory levels are likely to continue weighing on Gree'

s sales, and think mid-single digit growth is more likely. R&

D and selling expenses to weigh on earnings growth Gree is aware that its single market, single product focus limits the Company'

s growth potential. Therefore, the company is trying to diversify into new business areas in small appliances, smart equipment, and semi-conductors. Gree'

s R&

D spending, for example, increased from 2.4% to 3.5% of sales between

2017 and 2018. As Gree continues to invest in new product lines, we think increased selling expense may also pressure the Company'

s bottom line. Selling expenses have fallen in recent years from ~15% of sales in 2015-16 to just 9.4% of sales in 2018. But with Gree investing in new product development and diversifying its revenue mix, we think increasing sales and R&

D expenses may pressure its bottom line. Payout ratio reduced to ~48% Historically, Gree has maintained a ~70% payout ratio. This year'

s reduction to ~50% suggests the Company is withholding cash for M&

A activity, despite cash reserves of ~RMB113Bn. Stretched valuation Gree has been re-rated in recent weeks on news that the Zhuhai government is looking to dispose of its 18% stake in the Company, which would lead to improved corporate decision making and better management incentives. However, visibility on the buyer(s) remains low, and we think that current valuation at ~12x rolling forward consensus is unlikely to continue (Figures 8-9). We remain cautious about Gree'

s future growth in light of high channel inventory, the lack of new discernible long-term growth drivers, and an inconsistent corporate strategy. Gree derives ~88% of its revenue from China, making its earnings almost wholly reliant on the domestic China market. On this basis, we believe Gree warrants a discount relative to its peers Haier and Midea. We raise our 2019-2020 EPS estimates by 3% and 4% on a slightly improving revenue outlook and roll forward our TP to 2020. We value the Company at 9.5x 2020E PER, implying a target price of RMB44, or ~21% downside. In the event of a home appliance stimulus roll-out in 2H19, we think Gree'

s shares are potentially worth RMB47 per share, or 15% downside. SOURCES: CGIS RESEARCH, COMPANY DATA, BLOOMBERG China SELL Consensus ratings*: Buy

18 Hold

5 Sell

2 Current price: Rmb55.6 Target price: Rmb44.0 Previous target: Rmb40.0 Up/downside: -21% Reuters: Bloomberg:

000651 CH Market cap: US$49,648m Rmb334,354m Average daily turnover: US$440.1m Rmb2,957m Current shares o/s: 6,016m Free float: 50.0% *Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg Price performance 1M 3M 12M Absolute (%) 17.7 36.6 26.1 Relative (%) 18.1 17.1 26.2 Major shareholders % held Zhuhai Gree Group 18.2 HKEX (Stock Connect) 11.6 Hebei Jinghai 8.9 Insert Analysts Jeffrey Dorr T (852)

3698 6323 E [email protected] An Zhang, CPA T (852)

3698 6293 E [email protected]........