PDF《DHL GLOBAL TRADE BAROMETER – CHINA》

DHL GLOBAL TRADE BAROMETER C CHINA September

2018 Chinese trade growth decelerates, although remaining on a solid overall level Key findings: ? Mild growth for Chinese trade, despite index showing a downward trend (-4 points) with

59 points ? Slowing growth of Chinese air trade reflected in an index value of 63, a decrease by -9 points compared to June ? Chinese ocean trade declined slightly, with Personal & Household Goods and Machinery Parts remaining its most important growth drivers DHL Global Trade Barometer C China Index

2013 C present,

50 = no change DHL Global Trade Barometer C China Indexes C latest four months Jun'18 Jul'18 Aug'18 Sep'18 China Trade

63 64

62 59 Air Trade

72 72

67 63 Ocean Trade

58 59

58 56 The DHL Global Trade Barometer continues to forecast a mild growth for Chinese trade as the index hits 59, representing a decrease (-4 points) compared to the previous release in June.

Driven by the decline in both air (-9 points) and ocean (-2 points) trade. Nevertheless, the overall outlook for China remains above

50 points, which marks the threshold for a positive outlook. Growth in Chinese air trade is predicted to remain positive, albeit slower (-9 points) in comparison to the outlook in June. The dynamics are mainly fueled by air imports of Machinery Parts and Consumer Fashion Goods, which are expected to continue significant growth but C in the case of Consumer Fashion Goods C at a slower pace compared to June. Personal & Household Goods are predicted to recover after a negative growth outlook earlier this year. On the air import's side, Chemicals & Products, Capital Equipment, Machinery Parts and Temperature or Climate Controlled Goods are expected to contribute most to the growth. On the other hand, air import of Industrial Raw Materials is expected to decline during the next three months. Chinese ocean trade is also expected to decelerate in the next quarter, as the index is dropping -2 points. However, ocean trade will stay on a solid level due to ocean exports of Personal & Household Goods as well as Machinery Parts heavily contributing on the Chinese ocean export growth. Export of Basic Raw Materials will rise for the upcoming three months while Consumer Fashion Goods weigh on the index points. Ocean import will perform less successfully as only Chemicals & Products are predicted to grow. Although Basic Raw Materials is expected to improve this quarter, the index continues to decline C as has been the case throughout the entire year. Industrial Raw Materials is predicted to contract slightly, whereas the growth of Temperature or Climate Controlled Goods is predicted to level off towards moderate growth. DHL Global Trade Barometer C China Sector development C latest four months Jun Jul Aug Sep Basic Raw Materials

35 50

51 51 Capital Equip. & Machinery

82 83

82 77 Chemicals & Products

82 84

87 86 Consumer Fashion Goods

43 32

31 35 High Technology

58 58

55 52 Industrial Raw Materials

65 64

55 49 Land Vehicles & Parts

84 76

74 75 Machinery Parts

81 86

85 87 Personal & Household Goods

62 53

61 62 Temperature or Climate Control

83 77

78 63 Sep'18 index: predicting Sep'18- Nov'18 trade development Page

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2 For further information, please contact: Deutsche Post DHL Group Media Relations Christina Neuffer/David St?ppler Phone: +49

228 182-9944 E-mail: [email protected] About the DHL Global Trade Barometer: The DHL Global Trade Barometer an early indicator for the current state and future development of global trade. It is based on import and export data for a number of intermediates and early-cycle commodities that serve as the basis for further industrial production. Sources for the index are aggregated market data from air and containerized ocean freight from seven countries (China, South Korea, Germany, India, Japan, UK, USA), which account for more than