PDF《DHL GLOBAL TRADE BAROMETER – WORLD》

DHL GLOBAL TRADE BAROMETER C WORLD January

2018 DHL Global Trade Barometer scores

64 at the beginning of 2018, pointing to a moderate increase in world trade within three months Key findings: ? Newly created index slightly below calculations for previous months (December: 66) ? Weakening prospects for Chinese and Japanese trade, partially offset by improved prospects for India, South Korea and Great Britain ? Trade in both, basic and industrial raw materials, highly dynamic;

machinery parts & components growing equally strong.

Lowest projected growth for consumer and fashion goods. DHL Global Trade Barometer C World Index

2013 C present,

50 = no change DHL Global Trade Barometer C World Indexes C latest three months Nov'17 Dec'17 Jan'18 Global Trade

67 66

64 Air Trade

74 73

71 Ocean Trade

61 61

60 The general outlook for global trade dynamics, measured by the DHL Global Trade Barometer, remains positive. Compared to the previous month, the general index value is down by -2 points. With a current value of now

64 points, the GTB thus predicts a mild slowdown in worldwide trade growth. This development has been foremost driven by East Asia: Both, the Chinese and the Japanese Trade Barometers, show a declining outlook of -4 and -2 points, respectively. These effects have been partially upset by the positive outlooks for India (+2), South Korea (+2) and UK (+2). US trade is predicted to remain on its previous level, while the outlook for Germany is only slightly pointing downwards (-1). The global outlook for air trade has dropped by -2 points, but continues to predict positive growth with a value of 71. The drop is mainly due to a decline in US and German air trade with -4 and -3 points, respectively. With respect to worldwide trade in containerized ocean freight, a similar picture emerges. Compared to December, the index value is slightly down with -1 points. The main reason for this is a rather steep decline in Chinese ocean trade, with -7 points since November of last year;

indicators for all other countries point upwards. DHL Global Trade Barometer C World Sector developments Taking on a sectoral view, trade in raw materials proves to be the current growth driver in overall global trade dynamics. Worldwide trade in basic raw materials is expected to grow strongest amongst all sectors evaluated. This is mainly driven by Indian ad British imports, as well as both imports and exports by the US. A strong growth projection for machinery parts & components ranks second, which is mainly driven by strong Chinese exports and imports, as well as high volumes of German imports. This is closely followed by trade in industrial raw materials. British, Japanese and Indian imports were the main drivers behind those developments. Machinery parts & components emerged as the fastest growing sector for air trade, followed by high technology. The highest growth in ocean trade can be expected from trade in basic raw materials, followed C with some distance C by industrial raw materials.

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2018 Jan'18 index: predicting Jan'18- Mar'18 trade development Page

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2 For further information, please contact: Deutsche Post DHL Group Media Relations Dan McGrath/Christina Neuffer Phone: +49

228 182-9944 E-mail: [email protected] About the DHL Global Trade Barometer: The DHL Global Trade Barometer an early indicator for the current state and future development of global trade. It is based on import and export data for a number of intermediates and early-cycle commodities that serve as the basis for further industrial production. Sources for the index are aggregated market data from air and containerized ocean freight from seven countries (China, South Korea, Germany, India, Japan, UK, USA), which account for more than