PDF《Real Estate Derivatives》

0 20

40 60

80 100

120 140

160 180

200 1980

1985 1990

1995 2000

2005 2010 Date Real Index Price Rent STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL Copyright

2007 MacroMarkets LLC All Rights Reserved

11 Chicago: S&

P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index And BLS Rent of Primary Residence Chicago Homes

0 20

40 60

80 100

120 140

160 180

1975 1980

1985 1990

1995 2000

2005 2010 Date Real Index Price Rent STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL Copyright

2007 MacroMarkets LLC All Rights Reserved

12 Denver: S&

P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index And BLS Rent of Primary Residence Index Denver Homes

0 20

40 60

80 100

120 140

160 1975

1980 1985

1990 1995

2000 2005

2010 Date Real Index Price Rent STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL Copyright

2007 MacroMarkets LLC All Rights Reserved

13 Las Vegas: S&

P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index And BLS Rent of Primary Residence Las Vegas Homes

0 50

100 150

200 250

1980 1985

1990 1995

2000 2005

2010 Date Real Index Price Rent STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL Copyright

2007 MacroMarkets LLC All Rights Reserved

14 Los Angeles: S&

P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index And BLS Rent of Primary Residence Los Angeles Homes

0 50

100 150

200 250

300 1975

1980 1985

1990 1995

2000 2005

2010 Date Real Index Price Rent STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL Copyright

2007 MacroMarkets LLC All Rights Reserved

15 Miami: S&

P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index And BLS Rent of Primary Residence Index Miami Homes

0 50

100 150

200 250

300 1965

1970 1975

1980 1985

1990 1995

2000 2005

2010 Date Real Index Price Rent STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL Copyright

2007 MacroMarkets LLC All Rights Reserved

16 New York: S&

P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index And BLS Rent of Primary Residence Index New York Homes

0 50

100 150

200 250

1975 1980

1985 1990

1995 2000

2005 2010 Date Real Index Price Rent STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL Copyright

2007 MacroMarkets LLC All Rights Reserved

17 San Diego: S&

P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index And BLS Rent of Primary Residence Index San Diego Homes

0 50

100 150

200 250

300 1975

1980 1985

1990 1995

2000 2005

2010 Date Real Index Price Rent STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL Copyright

2007 MacroMarkets LLC All Rights Reserved

18 San Francisco: S&

P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index And BLS Rent of Primary Residence Index San Francisco Homes

0 50

100 150

200 250

1975 1980

1985 1990

1995 2000

2005 2010 Date Real Index Price Rent STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL Copyright

2007 MacroMarkets LLC All Rights Reserved

19 Washington DC: S&

P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index And BLS Rent of Primary Residence Index Washington DC Homes

0 50

100 150

200 250

300 1985

1990 1995

2000 2005

2010 Date Real Index Price Rent STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL Copyright

2007 MacroMarkets LLC All Rights Reserved

20 Residential Investment/GDP (%)1929-2006 Real Home Price Index 1929-2006

0 1

2 3

4 5

6 7

8 1920

1930 1940

1950 1960

1970 1980

1990 2000

2010 0

50 100

150 200

250 Real Home Price Index Res. Invest. As Share of GDP STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL Copyright

2007 MacroMarkets LLC All Rights Reserved

21 Compare OFHEO Indices C Short Sample Ending 2006-IV

200 205

210 215

220 225

230 235

240 245

250 2005

2006 2006

2007 2007 OFHEO USA OFHEO Purchase Only SA OFHEO Purchase Only NSA STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL Copyright

2007 MacroMarkets LLC All Rights Reserved

22 Recent NAR Median Home Price (Ending Feb 2007) $190,000 $195,000 $200,000 $205,000 $210,000 $215,000 $220,000 $225,000 $230,000 $235,000 2003.5