PDF《Wind Power Project》

20 years old are expected to be capable of generating a favorable revenue stream for several more years. However, there are a number of critical variables that could alter both the timing and attractiveness of repowering. These variables include the rate of technological advancement, availability of quality wind resource sites, wholesale market prices for electricity, durability and reliability of turbine equipment over time, and the extent to which owners are able to reuse existing infrastructure in the future. A single partial repowering scenario―replacement of only the turbine drivetrain and rotor―was also examined. As defined here, partial repowering was estimated to reduce the cost of repowering by about 10%, while achieving about 50% of the energy production improvements associated with full repowering. Under these conditions, partial repowering was determined to be less economically attractive than full repowering. It should be noted however, that partial repowering can take many forms. If other concepts for partial repowering can be developed and offer reduced operation and maintenance costs or increased energy production at substantially lower costs than full repowering, such opportunities may well be financially sound. Assuming a plant life of 20C25 years, demand for repowering is expected to be low over the next decade, reach a few hundred megawatts per year in the early 2020s, and achieve 1C3 gigawatts per year by the late 2020s. Total estimated value of the repowering market segment is estimated at $25 billion through

2030 (constant

2012 U.S. dollars) with the vast majority of this investment occurring in the latter half of the 2020s. Policy support in the form ........