PDF《天士力 （600535.CH）》

机构股票研究 机构股票研究 机构股票研究 机构股票研究 Page |

1 | PHILLISECURITIES (HK) RESEARCH 天士力 天士力 天士力 天士力 (600535.

CH) 丹滴 FDA 三期结果正面 中国 中国 中国 中国 | 医药 医药 医药 医药| 公司研报 公司研报 公司研报 公司研报

13 January

2017 丹滴 丹滴 丹滴 丹滴 FDA 三期结果正面 三期结果正面 三期结果正面 三期结果正面

12 月末,天士力公告复方丹参滴丸(丹滴)美国 FDA 随机、双盲、国际多中心 Ⅲ期临床试验结果:复方丹参滴丸在主要临床终点上具有显著的量效关系、增加 TED 的作用;

次要疗效观察终点指标佐证主要临床终点指标,疗效证闪.本试验用临 床研究解读了丹滴的组方基础,而且,试验再次证明t丹滴的临床安全性,整个试验 期间没有发生任何与试验方案或复方丹参滴丸相关的严重不良事件,所有其他一般不 良事件均低频率、较轻微、可自愈,不同研究组之间的不良事件发生率没有区别. 结果表明,在美国 FDA 的检测标准下,丹滴可以被证明有效,在现代的中药生产 体系中、在严格执行 GMP、GAP 等生产规的条件下生产出被 FDA 认可的中成药是 可行的.这是我国第一个完成 FDAIII 期临床试验的中成药,是中药向国际化和现代化 迈进的一大步.我们预计公司将会著手上市申请事宜,丹滴有望在

2018 年通过美国 FDA 认证并上市. 美国慢性心绞痛市场广阔,过去

20 年FDA 仅认证过两种新药,最新的是雷诺嗪 (市场规模超过

6 亿美元),但是副作用较大,丹滴作为植物药副作用低,可以长期 使用,且价格更实惠,预计上市后将在美国心绞痛市场占幌.同时,三期结 果也有望进一步推动丹滴在国内市场的销售,此前

2010 年丹滴 FDA 二期试验资料理 想,即推动 2011-2012 丹滴收入实现 20%以上的增速.此外,公司将成为我国中药国 际化的平台,包括麒麟丸等多个产品有望通过平台进入发达国家市场. 管道调整 管道调整 管道调整 管道调整基本完成 基本完成 基本完成 基本完成 近两年,公司增速明显放缓,2016 年前三季度医药工业营收甚至下降 14.5%,业 绩亦萎缩,这主要是受到公司调整管道结构并加强应收账款管理的影响.不过,公司 主要产品在医院终端市场销售仍保持增长.我们预计,经过

2016 年的管道去库存, 公司管道调整基本完成.而且,2008 以来公司主要产品招标降价幅度不大,显示其受 医保控费影响较小,2017 年公司医药工业大概率重回增长轨道.还值一提的是,公司 普佑克(重组人尿激酶原)、益气复脉和丹参多酚酸等品种有望进入全国医保目录, 或实现快速放量. Worse performance of Tasly Source: Wind, Phillip Securities (HK) Research 增持 增持 增持 增持 (下调 下调 下调 下调) 现价: CNY 40.04 (现价截至

1 月11 日) 目标价: CNY 46.00 (+15%) 公司资料 公司资料 公司资料 公司资料 普通股股东 (百万股) : 1,080 市值 (人民币百万元) : 43,262

52 周 最高价/最低价 (人民币元) : 56.00/ 31.28 主要股东 主要股东 主要股东 主要股东, , , , % 天士力控股集团有限公司 : 45.18 股价表现 股价表现 股价表现 股价表现, , , , %

1 个月 个月 个月 个月

3 个月 个月 个月 个月

1 年年年年天士力 -4.79 -6.65 12.28 上证指数 -2.58 -10.37 13.06 股价 股价 股价 股价 &

上证指数 上证指数 上证指数 上证指数 Source: Phillip Securities (HK) Research 财务资料 财务资料 财务资料 财务资料 CNY mn FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E Net Sales

12476 13228

13620 15326 Net Profit

1368 1479

1355 1657 EPS, CNY 1.32 1.38

125 1.53 PER, x 30.33 29.01 31.92 26.10 BVPS, CNY 4.68 6.91 7.74 8.90 P/BV, x 8.55 5.79 5.17 4.50 ROE, % 31.44 23.15 16.61 17.95 Debt/Equity (%) 154.94 99.99 92.31 92.31 Source: Company reports, Phillip Securities Est. 研研研研研 DDDD国和 国和 国和 国和 (+

86 21 51699400-110) [email protected] Page |

2 | PHILLISECURITIES (HK) RESEARCH 天士力 天士力 天士力 天士力( ( ( (600535 CH) ) ) ) 公司研报 公司研报 公司研报 公司研报 中药现代化龙头前景乐观 中药现代化龙头前景乐观 中药现代化龙头前景乐观 中药现代化龙头前景乐观 天士力极可能成为第一家走出国门的中药企业,成为中药现代化的龙头, 品牌影响力将明显提升,再加上管道调整结束,公司业绩将重回上升轨道.参 考可比公司,给予天士力

2017 年PE30 倍,12 个月目标价

46 元,为 增持 评级.(现价截至

1 月11 日) Historical P/E Valuation Source: Bloomberg, Phillip Securities (HK) Research Historical P/E Valuation Stock Code Company MV(CNY mn) PE(TTM) PE-2016F PE-2017F PB 600518.SH Kangmei Pharmaceutical 85,587 26.41 25.13 20.32 3.00 000538.SZ Yunnan Baiyao 76,751 25.68 24.79 22.03 5.06 600085.SH Tongrentang 42,036 43.32 41.63 36.57 5.54 002603.SZ Buchang Pharmaceutical 19,568 36.58 34.68 28.40 3.80 000423.SZ Dong-E E-Jiao 34,833 20.24 18.96 16.28 4.52 600557.SH Kangyuan Pharmaceutical 10,652 29.02 27.47 23.51 3.48 Average 30.21 28.78 24.52 4.23 600535.SH Tasly 43,262 34.25 29.86 25.43 5.42 Source: Wind, Phillip Securities (HK) Research 风险 风险 风险 风险 招标限价;

丹滴 FDA 认证进展低於预期. Page |

3 | PHILLISECURITIES (HK) RESEARCH 天士力 天士力 天士力 天士力( ( ( (600535 CH) ) ) ) 公司研报 公司研报 公司研报 公司研报 财务报告 财务报告 财务报告 财务报告 Periodicity: Periodicity: Periodicity: Periodicity:

2013 2013

2013 2013

2014 2014

2014 2014

2015 2015

2015 2015 2016F 2016F 2016F 2016F 2017F 2017F 2017F 2017F Valuation Ratios Valuation Ratios Valuation Ratios Valuation Ratios Price Earnings 37.42 30.33 29.01 31.92 26.10 Price to Book 10.69 8.55 5.79 5.17 4.50 Dividend Yield 0.87% 0.97% 1.05% 0.95% 1.15% Per share data(CNY) Per share data(CNY) Per share data(CNY) Per share data(CNY) EPS Adjusted 1.07 1.32 1.38 1.25 1.53 Book Value Per Share 3.74 4.68 6.91 7.74 8.90 Dividends Per Share 0.35 0.39 0.42 0.38 0.46 Growth &

Margin Growth &

Margin Growth &

Margin Growth &

Margin Revenue growth 18.79% 13.23% 5.17% 2.97% 12.52% Gross profit growth 27.69% 16.35% 8.35% -8.84% 15.88% Net profit growth 43.04% 24.36% 8.09% -8.39% 22.27% Gross Margin 35.74% 36.72% 37.84% 33.50% 34.50% Operating Margin 13.89% 16.05% 15.18% 13.50% 14.50% Net Profit Margin 9.91% 10.88% 11.18% 9.95% 10.81% Dividend Payout Ratio % 32.71% 29.55% 30.43% 30.29% 29.99% Key ratios Key ratios Key ratios Key ratios Return on Assets 11.85% 11.73% 10.44% 8.48% 9.33% Return on Equity 27.07% 31.44% 23.15% 16.61% 17.95% Liability ratio 59.82% 60.77% 50.00% 48.00% 48.00% Effective Tax Rate 17.77% 16.31% 15.15% 15.20% 15.20% Income Statement(CNY: mn) Income Statement(CNY: mn) Income Statement(CNY: mn) Income Statement(CNY: mn) Revenue Revenue Revenue Revenue 11,108 11,108 11,108 11,108 12,578 12,578 12,578 12,578 13,228 13,228 13,228 13,228 13,620 13,620 13,620 13,620 15,326 15,326 15,326 15,326 - Cost of Goods Sold 7,043 7,857 8,102 9,057 10,039 Gross Income Gross Income Gross Income Gross Income 3,970 3,970 3,970 3,970 4,619 4,619 4,619 4,619 5,005 5,005 5,005 5,005 4,563 4,563 4,563 4,563 5,288 5,288 5,288 5,288 - Selling, General &

Admin Expenses 2,427 2,600 2,996 2,724 3,065 Operating Income Operating Income Operating Income Operating Income 1,543 1,543 1,543 1,543 2,019 2,019 2,019 2,019 2,008 2,008 2,008 2,008 1,839 1,839 1,839 1,839 2,222 2,222 2,222 2,222 - Interest Expense

163 305

267 260

280 - Net Non-Operating Losses (Gains) -35 -19 -59 -65 -75 Pretax Income 1,416 1,733 1,795 1,644 2,017 - Income Tax Expense

252 283

272 250

307 Income Before XO Items 1,164 1,450 1,524 1,394 1,711 - Minority Interests

66 82

45 39

54 Net Profit Net Profit Net Profit Net Profit 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,368 1,368 1,368 1,368 1,479 1,479 1,479 1,479 1,355 1,355 1,355 1,355 1,657 1,657 1,657 1,657 Source: Company, Phillip Securities (HK) Research Estimates (财务资料截至

1 月11 日) PHILL 天士力 天士力 天士力 天士力( ( ( (600535 CH) ) ) ) 公司研报 公司研报 公司研报 公司研报 PHILLIP RESEARCH STOCK SELECTION SYSTEMS We do not base our recommendations entirely on the above quantitative return bands. We consider qualitative factors like (but not limited to) a stock'

s risk reward profile, market sentiment, recent rate of share price appreciation, presence or absence of stock price catalysts, and speculative undertones surrounding the stock, before making our final recommendation GENERAL DISCLAIMER This publication is prepared by Phillip Securities (Hong Kong) Ltd ( Phillip Securities ). By receiving or reading this publication, you agree to be bound by the terms and limitations set out below. This publication shall not be reproduced in whole or in part, distributed or published by you for any purpose. Phillip Securities shall not be liable for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of material contained in this publication. The information contained in this publication has been obtained from public sources which Phillip Securities has no reason to believe are unreliable and any analysis, forecasts, projections, expectations and opinions (collectively the Research ) contained in this publication are based on such information and are expressions of belief only. Phillip Securities has not verified this information and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made that such information or Research is accurate, complete or verified or should be relied upon as such. Any such information or Research contained in this publication is subject to change, and Phillip Securities shall not have any responsibility to maintain the information or Research made available or to supply any corrections, updates or releases in connection therewith. In no event will Phillip Securities be liable for any special, indirect, incidental or consequential damages which may be incurred from the use of the information or Research made available, even if it has been advised of the possibility of such damages. Any opinions, forecasts, assumptions, estimates, valuations and prices contained in this material are as of the date indicated and are subject to change at any time without prior notice. This material is intended for general circulation only and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. The products mentioned in this material may not be suitable for all investors and a person receiving or reading this material should seek advice from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of such products, taking into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of that person, before making a commitment to invest in any of such products. This publication should not be relied upon as authoritative without further being subject to the recipient'

s own independent verification and exercise of judgment. The fact that this publication has been made available constitutes neither a recommendation to enter into a particular transaction nor a representation that any product described in this material is suitable or appropriate for the recipient. Recipients should be aware that many of the products which may be described in this publication involve significant risks and may not be suitable for all investors, and that any decision to enter into transactions involving such products should not be made unless all such risks are understood and an independent determination has been made that such transactions would be appropriate. Any discussion of the risks contained herein with respect to any product should not be considered to be a disclosure of all risks or a complete discussion of such risks. Nothing in this report shall be construed to be an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of a security. Any dec................