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8 香港物业报告Hong Kong Property Review

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8 年全年合计,香港经济录得高於趋势的增长.

由於环球经济环境良好,香港经济在上半年录得强劲增长.然而,受美国与内地的贸易摩擦以及美国接连加息影响,香港经济增长在下半年明显减慢,在第四季尤为显著.基本通胀率由2017年的1.7% 升至2018年的2.6% , 属於温和水平.尽管外围环境充满挑战,劳工市场进一步趋紧,总就业人数持续上升,收入情况亦见改善.失业率下降至2.8% , 为二十多年以来的低位.由於住宅单位供求情况偏紧继续起支持作用,住宅物业市场在2018年上半年持续亢奋,但在下半年出现调整.住宅售价自8月起回落,但全年合计仍录得升幅.市场气氛受多项因素影响,包括本地最优惠贷款利率在9月上调,以及环球股票市场波动.尽管售价下跌,市民的置业购买力指数在第四季约为69%,远高於1998至2017年期间44% 的长期平均数.商业及工业楼宇市场在2018年有起有跌.写字楼市场在上半年气氛普遍良好.然而,下半年环球经济前景暗淡,导致市场活动在将近年底时失去动力.虽然如此,2018年全年合计,非住宅物业市场的售价和租金仍录得升幅.为应对过热的楼市,政府自2010年11月起推出多轮需求管理措施.这些措施旨在防止物业市场进一步升温,以免对本地宏观经济和金融体系的稳定造成重大风险,同时确保物业市场健康稳定发展,以促进本港整体的可持续发展.土地供应方面,政府决心觅地造地、建立土地储备,以解决土地供应短缺的问题.为此,政府已提出几项计划,包括「明日大屿愿景」、发展棕地、土地共享和活In 2018, Hong Kong economy registered an above- trend growth as a whole. First half of the year recorded robust upswing amid the favourable global economic environment. However, Hong Kong'

s economic growth decelerated notably in the second half, especially in the fourth quarter as the US-Mainland trade conflict and successive US interest rate hikes took its toll. Underlying inflation accelerated from 1.7% in

2017 to a moderate level of 2.6% in 2018. Despite the external challenges, the labour market showed further tightening, depicting continuous growth in total employment with income condition improved. The unemployment rate declined to 2.8%, the lowest in more than

20 years. The residential property market remained exuberant in the first half of 2018, as the tight demand-supply balance of flats continued to render support. However, second half of the year underwent a consolidation. Flat prices reverted to a decline in August, though still recorded a gain for the whole year. Market sentiment was dampened by various factors, including the increase in local Best Lending Rates in September and volatility in the global stock markets. Notwithstanding the price decline, the index of home purchase affordability was around 69% in the fourth quarter, significantly above its long-term average of 44% over 1998-2017. The commercial and industrial property markets experienced ups and downs in 2018. In the first half of the year, the office market showed upbeat sentiment. However, gloomy global economic outlook in the second half of the year caused market activities losing momentum towards the end of the year. Nevertheless, prices and rentals of non-residential sectors recorded gains in

2018 as a whole. To address the overheated property market, the Government has introduced several rounds of demand- side management measures since November 2010. These measures aim at preventing further exuberance in the housing market which may pose significant risks to our macroeconomic and financial stability, as well as ensuring the healthy and stable development of the property market which is crucial to the sustainable development of Hong Kong as a whole. On land supply, the Government is determined to identify and produce land in order to 综观 Overview

9 香港物业报告Hong Kong Property Review

2019 化工厦.此外,政府亦完全同意土地供应专责小组就土地供应策略所提供的建议.短期挑战以外,香港的中期经济前景正面.内地深化改革和开放会创造可持续的增长,将对香港大有好处,尤其是「一带一路」建设及粤港澳大湾区发展将带来庞大的机遇.为把握这些机遇,政府将竭尽所能提升香港整体的竞争力.住宅物业住宅物业市场在2018年上半年保持畅旺,但在政府於6月推出六项房屋政策新措施后出现调整.这些措施旨在达到三个目标:令资助出售单位更可负担;

增加资助房屋单位供应及加强支援过渡性房屋供应;

以及鼓励一手私人住宅单位尽早推出市场.住宅售价自8月起回落,但全年合计仍录得2%的温和升幅.交投活动在下半年转趋淡静,令全年住宅物业交投量下跌7%至57247宗.向空置的一手私人住宅单位徵收「额外差饷」为其中一项房屋政策新措施,目的在促使地产商尽早推售或出租一手私人住宅单位.政府现正积极筹备有关立法工作.build a land reserve to help resolve the challenge of land supply shortage. Several plans were presented, including the Lantau Tomorrow Vision, development of brownfield sites, land sharing and revitalisation of industrial buildings. The Government also fully endorsed the Task Force on Land Supply'

s recommendations relating to the land supply strategy. Looking beyond the short-term challenges, the medium- term outlook for the Hong Kong economy is bright. The deepening reforms and opening-up in the Mainland will result in sustainable growth, which will be beneficial to Hong Kong. In particular, the Belt and Road Initiative and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Bay Area development will bring about enormous opportunities. To capitalise on these opportunities, the Government will spare no effort in strengthening Hong Kong'

s overall competitiveness. Residential The residential property market remained buoyant in the first half of 2018, but underwent a consolidation after the introduction of six new housing initiatives by the Government in June, which intended to meet three objectives, namely making subsidised sale flats more affordable, increasing supply of subsidised housing units and enhancing support for transitional housing supply, and encouraging more timely supply of first-hand private flats. Flat prices have reverted to a decline since August, though still recorded a mild increase of 2% for the whole year. Trading activities quietened down in the second half with the number of transactions for residential property reduced by 7% to

57 247 in 2018. Introducing Special Rates on vacant first-hand private residential units was one of those initiatives which aimed at expediting housing supply by encouraging developers to sell or rent out completed units within a reasonable time. The Government is now formulating the legislative amendments. 综观 Overview

10 香港物业报告Hong Kong Property Review

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8 年私人住宅的落成量增加18%至20968 个单位.入住量为11

623 个单位, 较前一年低31% . 年底空置量上升至总存量的4.3% , 相当於51426个单位.在这些空置单位中,11

242 个单位於占用许可证发出后,仍未获发满意纸或转让同意书.2019和2020年的预测落成量分别为20415 个和20181 个单位.2018年首七个月销售市场畅旺,但其后回软.然而,与2017年12月相比,私人住宅整体售价仍录得1.8%的按年升幅.租金亦温和增长,但在接近2018年年底时失去动力.私人住宅整体租金仍上升4.6% . 有别於上一年,2018年的市场回报率呈温和上升趋势.写字楼2018年写字楼市道畅旺,但接近年底时有所冷却.不过,年内售价和租金均录得正数增长.由於香港的经济自由和具竞争力的税率继续赢得国际认同,加上香港处於有利地理位置,是跨国企业和其他外国公司打入中国内地市场的门户,市场对写字楼的需求依然殷切.为应付市场需求,政府将致力增加写字楼供应,而其中一个方法便是将商业地带分散至其他地区,例如九龙东和f鱼涌.2018?写字楼的?成?为179

200 平方米,较2017?少10%.甲级写字楼的?成?为178

500 平方米,当中39% 和38% 分别?自观塘和东区,而乙级写字楼的700平方米?成?则全部来自北区.?内,写字楼的整体使用?飙升至265

800 平方米,甲级和乙级写字楼的使用?分别为正数234

200 平方米和34 600平方 米.?底空置?跌至总存量的8.6%,相当於1032

100 平 方米.甲级和乙级写字楼的空置?分别下滑至各自总存量的8.7% 和9.0% , 而丙级写字楼的空置?则微升至其总存量的7.2% . 按分区计,北角/f鱼涌的甲级写字楼录得双位数字的空置?.Completions in

2018 increased by 18% to

20 968 units. Take-up, at

11 623 units, was 31% lower than that of the last year. Vacancy at the year-end climbed to 4.3% of the total stock, equivalent to

51426 units. Among these vacant units,

11 242 units were not yet issued with Certificate of Compliance or Consent to Assign after obtaining the Occupation Permit. Forecast completions in

2019 and

2020 are

20 415 and

20 181 units respectively. Sales market was buoyant in the first seven months of

2018 but softened thereafter. Nevertheless, overall flat prices recorded a year-on-year increase of 1.8% as compared to December 2017. Rents also increased moderately but lost momentum towards the end of 2018. Overall flat rents went up by 4.6%. Unlike the preceding year, market yield was on a moderate upward trend in 2018. Office The office market was upbeat in

2018 but cooled off towards the end of the year. Nonetheless, positive gains were recorded in both prices and rents in the year. As Hong Kong'

s economic freedom an........