PDF《东方航空（670.HK）》

21 63512937 东方航空 东方航空 东方航空 东方航空 Rating 2.00 增持 增持 增持 增持 - Previous Rating 2.00 增持 Target Price (HKD) 2.71 - Previous Target Price (HKD) 3.73 Closing Price (HKD) 2.54 Expected Capital Gains (%) 6.7% Expected Dividend Yield (%) 0.0% Expected Total Return (%) 6.7% Raw Beta (Past 2yrs w eekly data) 1.20 Market Cap. (HKD bn) 42,127 Enterprise Value (HKD mn) 98,891

52 w eek range (HKD) 2.19 - 3.73 Closing Price in

52 w eek range Key Financial Summary FYE 12/12 12/13F 12/14F 12/15F Revenue (RMB mn) 85,253 93,674 103,126 113,936 Net Profit, adj. (RMB mn) 2,954 2,584 3,603 4,960 EPS, adj. (RMB) 0.26 0.22 0.31 0.43 P/E (X),adj. 7.8 9.0 6.5 4.7 BVPS (RMB) 2.03 2.21 2.63 2.89 P/B (X) 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 DPS (RMB) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 Div. Yield (%) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% Source: Bloomberg, PSR est. *All multiples &

yields based on current market price Valuation Method PE &

PB 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 30-Sep-12 30-Oct-12 30-Nov-12 30-Dec-12 30-Jan-13 28-Feb-13 30-Mar-13 30-Apr-13 30-May-13 30-Jun-13 30-Jul-13 30-Aug-13 30-Sep-13

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670 hk equity HSI 0% 50% 100% 东方航空 东方航空 东方航空 东方航空(670.HK) Phillip Securities (Hong Kong) Ltd Research

2 October

2013 2 of

2 ・未来展望:下半年行业进入传统旺季,虽然出境游需求 保持两位数增长,但7,8 月由於天气原因和商务需求未显 有效复苏,行业供需和票价水平未见明显改善,预计航空 需求旺季将推迟至

9 月下旬.另外,7 月以来国内航油出 厂价不断上调,累计上涨

400 元/吨.综合来看,下半年公 司的盈利虽倾向於环比改善,但同比面临向下的压力. ・我们调整公司 2013/2014/2015 年的每股盈利预期分别 至0.22/0.31/0.43 元.下调

12 个月目标价至 2.71 港元, 对应2013/2014/2015 年9.0/6.5/4.7 倍市盈率,0.9/0.8/0.7 倍市净率.由於地处上海,公司未来可能受益 於上海迪斯尼和自贸区的建成和推进,给予 谨慎增持 评级. Fig 1. Regional routes account more 68.7% 4.5% 26.8% 67.3% 4.3% 28.3% 4.65% 28.3% 67.1%

0 10,000,000 20,000,000 30,000,000 40,000,000 50,000,000 60,000,000 70,000,000 Domestic HK/MC International

2011 2012 2013H Source: Company reports, PSR Fig 2. RPK growth of CEA -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% J a n -

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1 3 Total Domestic International Regional Source: Company reports, PSR Fig 3. Fleet Delivery Plan Source: Company reports, PSR Fig 4. P L/F (Passenger Load Factor) Comparison

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1 3 AC CEA CSA Source: Company reports, PSR Fig 5. Fleet Delivery Plan Source: Company reports, PSR Fig 6. Peer Valuation Comparison Name Ticker Cap: USD Mil BEst P/B BEst P/B: Y+1 BEst P/E BEst P/E: Y+1 BEst EV/BEst EBITDA P/B ROA LF% ROE % VIRGIN AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS LT VAH AU

1039 1.1 1.1 43.0 16.5 7.4 1.1 -2.3 -10.0 AIR CANADA-CLASS A AC/A CN

978 N/A N/A 7.9 4.3 2.5 N/A 1.6 N/A AIR CHINA LTD-A

601111 CH

8712 0.9 0.9 9.2 8.5 7.2 1.1 2.6 9.6 CHINA EASTERN AIRLINES CO-A

600115 CH

5432 1.3 1.2 9.6 8.4 8.5 1.0 2.2 13.7 HAINAN AIRLINES CO-A