PDF《＂Accumulate＂》

Equity Research Equity Research Report Property Sector Company Report Country Garden (02007 HK) 股票研究公司报告证券研究报告房地产行业碧桂园Company Report: Country Garden (02007 HK) 中文版 Van Liu 刘斐凡 公司报告:碧桂园 (02007 HK) Chinese version +86

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18 April

2017 Results in line and Strong Contracted Sales, Maintain Accumulate 符合预期的业绩以及强劲合约销售,维持 收集 ?

2016 underlying net profit was in line with our expectation. Top line increased by 35.2% YoY to RMB153,087 mn in 2016. Underlying net profit increased 27.0% YoY to RMB11,134 mn. ? Contracted sales will strongly grow. Sales target and saleable resources in

2017 are RMB400.0 bn (indicating 29.5% YoY growth) and RMB616.3 bn (indicating 64.9% target sale-through rate), respectively. ? We expect stable gross margins and healthy leverage ratios. Increasing contracted ASP increasing, a quality land bank and proper unit land costs will protect the Company'

s gross margin, which are all expected to remain at around 21.2% between

2017 and 2019. ? The Company has benign fundamental prospects. In addition, share repurchases could support its share price. Therefore, we think the Company should justify a lower NAV discount. Based on higher earnings forecasts, we revise up the Company'

s target price from HK$4.72 to HK$8.37, which represents a 55% discount to the Company'

s revised 2017E NAV of HK$18.61 per share, 9.1x underlying

2017 PER and 1.9x

2017 PBR. We maintain Accumulate . Risks: (1) lower-than-expected contracted sales and (2) policy tightening in lower-tier cities. ?

2016 年核心净利符合我们预期.总收入同比增长 35.2%到人民币 1,530.87 亿元.核心净 利同比上升 27.0%到人民币 111.34 亿元. ? 合约销售将延续强劲增长.2017 年的销售目标和可售资源分别为人民币 4,000 亿元(预示 同比 29.5%的增长)和人民币 6,163 亿元(预示 64.9%的去化率). ? 我们预计稳定的毛利率和健康的杠杆比率.合约销售均价的上涨,有质量的土储和合适的 土地单位成本将会保护公司的毛利率,并预计其将在

2017 到2019 年维持在 21.2%左右. ? 公司将会拥有一个良好的基本面展望.另外,股份回购支撑起股价.因此,我们认为公司 应适用一个较低的每股净资产折让.基于我们上调了核心净利,我们将目标价从 4.72 港元 上调至 8.37 港元,相当于较 18.61 港元的

2017 年每股净资产有 55%的折让,也分别相当 于9.1 倍2017 年核心市盈率和 1.9 倍2017 年市净率.我们维持 收集 .风险:低于预期 的房屋销售和低线城市政策收紧. Rating: Accumulate Maintained 评级: 收集 (维持) 6-18m TP 目标价: HK$8.37 Revised from 原目标价: HK$4.72 Share price 股价: HK$7.740 Stock performance 股价表现 Change in Share Price 股价变动

1 M

1 个月

3 M

3 个月

1 Y

1 年Abs. % 绝对变动 % 13.7 81.3 147.3 Rel. % to HS index 相对恒指变动 % 11.8 75.5 133.6 Avg. share price(HK$) 平均股价(港元) 3.1 3.1 3.1 Source: Bloomberg, Guotai Junan International. Year End 年结 Turnover 收入 Net Profit 股东净利 EPS 每股净利 EPS 每股净利变动 PER 市盈率 BPS 每股净资产 PBR 市净率 DPS 每股股息 Yield 股息率 ROE 净资产收益率 12/31 (RMB m) (RMB m) (RMB) (%) (x) (RMB) (x) (RMB) 2015A 113,223 8,770 0.402 (15.0) 16.1 2.994 2.2 0.134 2.1 15.2 2016A 153,087 11,134 0.504 25.4 13.7 3.177 2.2 0.169 2.5 17.0 2017F 219,636 18,086 0.819 62.6 8.4 4.005 1.7 0.274 4.0 23.5 2018F 300,456 23,618 1.070 30.6 6.4 4.857 1.4 0.355 5.2 24.7 2019F 391,470 31,551 1.429 33.6 4.8 5.998 1.1 0.472 6.9 26.8 Shares in issue (m) 总股数 (m) 21,353.8 Major shareholder 大股东 Yang Huiyan 57.4% Market cap. (HK$ m) 市值 (HK$ m) 165,278.7 Free float (%) 自由流通比率 (%) 31.0