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Title: Skyscrapers and Skylines: The Case of China Authors: Jason Barr, Associate Professor, Rutgers University Jingshu Luo, PhD Graduate Student, Rutgers University Subject: Economics/Financial Keywords: Development Economics Height Publication Date:

2016 Original Publication: Cities to Megacities: Shaping Dense Vertical Urbanism Paper Type: 1.

Book chapter/Part chapter 2. Journal paper 3. Conference proceeding 4. Unpublished conference paper 5. Magazine article 6. Unpublished ? Council on Tall Buildings and Urban Habitat / Jason Barr;

Jingshu Luo ctbuh.org/papers ?? CTBUH

2016 Shenzhen ・ Guangzhou ・ Hong Kong Conference? |? 2016年CTBUH深圳 ・ 广州 ・ 香港国际会议??423 Introduction Since 1978, when the Chinese government instituted its economic reforms, China has seen rapid economic development. Along with this change has been the growth of China'

s cities, where new skylines have risen. While China'

s investment in skyscrapers has been nothing short of spectacular, little, in fact, is known about what is driving their construction. Unlike many other developed or developing nations across the world, such as Europe or Latin America, Chinese cities have dramatically embraced the skyscraper as a key part of its real estate stock. Table

1 shows that the Asian continent has more skyscrapers (100 meter or taller buildings) than the rest of the continents combined (Figure 1). Table

2 shows that east Asian cities comprise six of the top

10 cities with the most skyscrapers (www.emporis.com, 2016) (Figure 2). Likely, one key role is the major economic and demographic transitions taking place. In China, the massive movement of agricultural workers to cities seeking employment in the Since 1978, when China instituted economic reforms, cities have embraced skyscraper construction. Despite the importance of these structures, little is understood about what has been driving their heights and frequencies. This work explores to what degree skyscraper construction patterns represent rational responses to the demand for tall buildings versus political or sociological factors, such as to call attention to respective cities or raise revenue for municipal governments. The findings suggest that economic fundamentals (population and gross city products) are key drivers of skyscrapers. Evidence for political factors is mixed. Municipal fiscal situations do not seem to matter, but there is a negative correlation between the ages of municipal leaders and skyscraper construction, suggesting that younger leaders promote skyscrapers as a way to advance their careers. No evidence is found to support that cities engage in inter-city competition in the skyscraper market, but smaller cities build taller than predicted. Keywords: Building Height, China, Economics, Urban Growth 1978年,中国迎来了改革开放.伴随着全面的经济改革和城市化进程,中国各大城市 也开始投入到摩天大楼的兴建中.虽然中国的摩天大楼已经得到了广泛关注,却很少有 人探索是什么力量在不断推动中国摩天大楼的高度和建设速度.这篇文章旨在探索中国 摩天大楼的兴建动力,究竟是城市发展对高层建筑的合理需求,还是其他社会或政治原 因.研究发现表明,基本经济要素例如人口和城市生产总值仍是影响摩天大楼兴建的主 要因素.政治因素的作用是复杂的.地方财政收支和摩天大楼修建之间没有有明显的关 系,但地方政府主要官员(市长和市委书记)的年龄与摩天大楼的修建负相关系,这意 味着年轻的地方官员更希望借助摩天大楼的修建推动他们政治生涯的发展.此外,这篇 文章没有发现系统性的证据支持摩天大楼市场中存在城市之间的竞争,但发现小城市比 预期建设了更高的摩天大楼. 关键词:建筑高度、中国、经济学、城市发展 Abstract | 摘要 Jason Barr Associate Professor | 副教授 Rutgers University-Newark 美国罗格斯大学 Newark, United States | 纽瓦克, 美国 Jingshu Luo PhD Graduate Student 博士研究生 Rutgers University-Newark 美国罗格斯大学 Newark, United States | 纽瓦克,美国 Jason Barr is an Associate Professor of Economics at Rutgers University-Newark, and the Director of Graduate Studies for the university'