PDF《Market》

s President rejected its choice of a euro sceptic as the economy minister. The President then appointed an interim prime minister to prepare for snap elections but the decision sent equity and bond markets into freefall, dragging Eurozone markets down with it. ? Malaysia elected a new government in a surprise win for the Pakatan Harapan (PH) opposition, led by 92-year old former Prime Minster Tun Dr Mahathir. Given the electoral hurdles in its way, this was a considerable achievement for PH which almost instantly began a probe into the 1MBD investment vehicle and questioned many proposed infrastructure projects. 环球动态五大要点 ? 虽然美国退出伊朗核协议,但对於已签约的其他 「大国」 ,该协议仍然生效.美国表明对任何与伊朗有业务往来的公司实施制裁,导致Maersk及Total等公司终止与伊朗的合作协议.此外,总统特朗普宣布取消原订於6月中与北韩举行的峰会,但月底前改称双方仍 有可能恢复谈判,令全球密切关注特朗普即将发布的相关推文消息. ? 美元升值对部分新兴市场造成的影响逐步浮现.阿根廷首当其冲,被迫向国际货币基金组织求助 (详见下文 「货币」 一节) .由於美国 加息及美元升值,印尼与匈牙利、波兰、希腊及南非同样面对投资者资金外流.土耳其亦未能独善其身,主要由於其经常账赤字庞 大,里拉显著下滑.虽然当地央行於5月加息3%,但年初至今跌幅已超过25%. ? 巴西再度陷入政治危机,货车司机为抗议柴油价格高企堵塞全国公路,导致燃料短缺及货运中断,部分公司需要暂时中止营运.短 暂下调燃料价格的建议未能落实,而增加补贴的建议终获接纳.然而,这次罢工可能引致国家财政状况恶化、经济增长放缓、通胀 升温,甚至令政权更为脆弱,无法推进改革.随著政治暗杀疑云密布,巴西再度陷入动荡. ? 继意大利总统拒绝由一位疑欧派人士出任经济部长后,两个反建制党派经过两个月对话后组建新内阁无果,令意大利陷入政治困 局.随后总统委任临时总理为提前举行大选铺路,但这一决定令股市与债市双双急挫,拖累欧元区市场下滑. ? 马来西亚大选由92岁前总理马哈蒂尔领导的反对派希望联盟意外胜出.鉴於选举过程中遭受重重险阻,此次当选对马哈蒂尔而言是 重大胜利,他随即对1MDB投资项目展开调查,并对多项提呈的基建项目提出质询. beleaguered Indonesian market ended flat. But elsewhere, Asia markets followed the global trend lower. Malaysia lost 8.1% with most of the losses coming in the couple of weeks post its election as investors grew nervous on the economic direction of the new government. ? Japan fell 1.0% with declines in the final week for automakers on reports the Trump administration was considering tariffs of 25% on imports of cars. ? 股市於月底下滑,意大利、巴西及其他地区的政治局势及市场 对已发展市场债务水平的忧虑引发多个指数下跌,尤以新兴市 场最显著. ? 已发展市场方面,美国轻跑赢欧洲,意大利下跌11%,主要 受其银行业侧重投资国内债市拖累.希腊下跌19%,由於市场 忧虑该国银行业亦遭受重创,而西班牙总理遭不信任动议罢 免,令该国市场下挫.本国货币持续贬值,导致匈牙利及土耳 其分别下跌14%及13%. ? 一如所料,5月份MSCI EMEA指数表现逊色,下跌5.8%,但并 非表现最差地区.拉丁美洲下挫16%,表现最为逊色,主要由 於巴西在指数中所占比重较高,当地货车司机罢工的不利影响 拖累表现.由於政府大幅增加燃料补贴,领先燃油供应商 Petrobras跌幅一度达30%.此外,阿根廷Merval指数 (非MSCI 旗下指数) 下跌6%,当地债市暴跌影响投资情绪. ? 相反,亚洲跌势轻微,MSCI亚洲(日 本除外) 指数仅下跌1.3%.大中华市场显著领先,於月底微升.面临困境的印尼股 市则表现持平.亚洲其他地区市场跟随全球走势下滑.马来西 Equities 股票 ? Ten-year US Treasury yields dipped below 3% as investors sought out safe havens away from several emerging markets as well as the more risky European developed bond markets such as Italy, Spain and Greece. ? Italian Bond prices suffered their worst day in