PDF《Market》

25 years at the end of the month after the President rejected a euro sceptic as economy minister and paved the way for new elections. Investors fear new elections could deliver a deeply anti-euro government while domestic public finances continue to struggle. ? Some central banks appear to be wobbling on the easy money exit ramp: the Bank of England left interest rates on hold just weeks after it signalled a likely 25bps hike and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand signalled it would leave rates on hold until later into 2019. But the Fed Reserve was firm indicating it remained on track to raise policy rate in coming months but it did leave interest rates unchanged at its May meeting. Several emerging market central banks hiked rates to defend their currencies. ? 美国10年期国库券收益率跌穿3%,因投资者避险情绪升温, 资金从多个新兴市场及较高风险的意大利、西班牙及希腊等欧 洲已发展国家债市流出. ? 意大利继总统拒绝疑欧派人士出任经济部长并筹备新一轮大选, 导致月底意大利债券价格跌至25年来新低.投资者恐慌新一轮大 选将促成一个反欧政府,而国内公共财政依然捉襟见肘. ? 部分央行对取消货币宽政策举棋不定:英国央行在表示可能 加息25个基点的短短数周后宣布维持利率不变,新西兰央行 亦表示将维持利率不变,直到2019年下半年为止.然而,联 储局虽坚称将在未来数月按计划上调政策利率,但在5月会议 上却维持利率不变.多个新兴市场央行调高利率,以抑制本国 货币贬值. ? The US dollar was strong in May, with a combination of robust US economic data, and a sell off in the euro and some emerging market currencies stimulating a flight to quality. The yen also gained against the euro and some emerging markets but was slightly weaker against the US dollar. Weakness in sterling caused by weak economic data and Brexit uncertainty also sent cable to six-month lows. ? The euro endured a difficult month as political uncertainties in Italy caused a sell off as questions began re-circulating about the future of the currency. In Italy, the anti-establishment 5-Star Movement and the far-right League proposed some changes to Italy'

s debt structure, an amnesty for certain tax offenders and higher pension payments for retirees, before nominating a euro sceptic as economy minister. This crossed the line in the sand as far as the president was concerned but it didn'

t stop the euro from selling off against the dollar with the big fear being that a second general election could become a de facto referendum on membership of the eurozone. For the month, the euro lost 3.2% of its value and is at six-month lows against the dollar. ? Among emerging market currencies, the Turkish lira'

s dramatic 20% ? Crude oil continued to maintain el........