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9 Equity Research Equity Research Report 证券研究报告Shipping and Logistics Sector Company Report Shenzhen International (00152 HK) 股票研究公司报告证券研究报告航运物流行业深圳国际Company Report: Shenzhen International (00152 HK) 中文版 Spencer Fan 范明 公司报告:深圳国际 (00152 HK) Chinese version +86

755 2397

6686 fanming@gtjas.

com

28 April

2017 Slow Logistics Pick-Up,

2017 to Restore, Reiterate Buy 物流增速放缓,2017年有望修复,维持 买入 ? Shenzhen International'

s ( SZI or the Company )

2016 results were in line with our expectation. Toll road revenue increased 26.0% YoY amid enhanced traffic volume. Associate company Shenzhen Airlines'

2016 profit contribution to SZI soared 119% to HK$834 million, with robust passenger load factor sustaining into 1Q17. We also expect SZI'

s logistics revenue to rebound in 2017. ?

2017 is another harvest year for domestic logistics expansion, which may benefit SZI'

s relevant businesses. The State Post Bureau projected CAGR of YoY growth to be 27.6% / 23.6% for delivery volume / industry revenue for domestic logistics, respectively, during 2016-2021. SZI'

s logistics parks and cargo storage function within integrated hubs could be enhanced to create synergy with downstream channels. As of Mar. 2017, SZI operates in

17 major logistic gateway cities, involving a planned site area of 4.90 million sq.m. Overall occupancy rate for logistics hubs could stay below 80% in 2017. ?

2016 operations showed business diversity. Financially, SZI disposed of 24.6 million A-shares of CSG and gained HK$255 million. Operationally, SZI made progress in its Qianhai land, locking a profit before tax of HK$648 million. Currently, only 10% of SZI'

s Qianhai land is being developed, with 90% still under discussion. SZI might continue cooperating with the government without paying additional land grant payments, and the profit share ratio is estimated to be 40:60 (SZI:SZ Government). With logistics rebound expectation and land potential, SZI'

s

2017 fundamentals may strengthen. We revise up the TP to HK$15.10 to reflect our optimism. Our TP represents 12.6x, 11.5x and 11.2x 2017-2019 PER. ? 深圳国际

2016 年业绩符合我们预期.受益车流量上升,收费公路实现收入同比 26.0%增长.联营公司深圳航空

2016 年利润贡献跳涨 119%至834 百万港元,而强劲的航空行业 客座率表现延续到了

2017 年一季度.另外,我们预计公司

2017 年物流业务将反弹. ?

2017 年对于国内物流扩张仍将是丰收年, 或将利好深圳国际相关业务.国家邮政局预测国 内快递量/物流全行业 2016-2021 年的收入复合增速分别为 27.6%/23.6%.深圳国际物流 园及城市综合物流港的货物仓储可通过与下游配送渠道协同而得到进一步增强. 截至

2017 年3月,公司拥有

17 个物流节点,规划面积达

490 万平方米,预计

2017 年物流园整体出 租率或仍低于 80%. ? 公司

2016 年参与多项操作展示其经营多样性.财务上,公司处置

2460 万南玻-A 股票录 得255 百万港元收益. 经营上, 深国际前海项目取得进展, 并锁定税前利润

648 百万港元. 目前深国际前海土地仅落实 10%,剩余 90%仍待定.公司或在无需现金支付土地出让金情 况下,继续与政府讨论用地事宜,并按照 40:60 比例分享开发利润.考虑物流反弹预期及 土地潜力,2017 年深国际基本面有望增强.我们上调目标价至 15.10 港元,该目标价相当 于12.6 倍、11.5 倍及 11.2 倍2017 年-2019 年市盈率. Rating: Buy Maintained 评级: 买入 (维持) 6-18m TP 目标价: HK$15.10 Revised from 原目标价: HK$14.90 Share price 股价: HK$13.200 Stock performance 股价表现 Change in Share Price 股价变动