PDF《行业周报：现货小跌期货小涨,价差改善但仍为负》

90 110

130 150

170 190

210 230

250 06/Jan/06 06/Apr/06 06/Jul/06 06/Oct/06 06/Jan/07 06/Apr/07 06/Jul/07 06/Oct/07 06/Jan/08 06/Apr/08 06/Jul/08 06/Oct/08 06/Jan/09 06/Apr/09 06/Jul/09 06/Oct/09 06/Jan/10 06/Apr/10 06/Jul/10 06/Oct/10 06/Jan/11 06/Apr/11 06/Jul/11 06/Oct/11 Myspic 长材指数 板材指数 资料来源:Mysteel,长江证券研究部

3 请阅读最后一页评级说明和重要声明

4 表2:本周国内各地区钢材价格均有所下跌 最新价格 一周变动 一月变动 三月变动 一年变动 国内钢铁主要品 种价格变动 元/吨 北京 4,060

0 0.00% -230 -5.36% -870 -17.65% -440 -9.78% 上海 4,350 -30 -0.68% -20 -0.46% -410 -8.61% -310 -6.65% 武汉 4,290 -100 -2.28% -100 -2.28% -530 -11.00% -390 -8.33% 螺纹钢 均价 4,265 -19 -0.44% -110 -2.51% -612 -12.55% -375 -8.08% 北京 4,230

0 0.00% -150 -3.42% -700 -14.20% -390 -8.44% 上海 4,370 -10 -0.23% -30 -0.68% -570 -11.54% -390 -8.19% 武汉 4,430 -140 -3.06% -180 -3.90% -590 -11.75% -440 -9.03% 线材 均价 4,416 -32 -0.72% -90 -2.00% -586 -11.72% -314 -6.64% 北京 4,230 -20 -0.47% -70 -1.63% -550 -11.51% -220 -4.94% 上海 4,210 -10 -0.24%

30 0.72% -530 -11.18% -190 -4.32% 武汉 4,230

0 0.00% -60 -1.40% -570 -11.88% -300 -6.62% 热轧 均价 4,224 -4 -0.09% -37 -0.87% -580 -12.07% -272 -6.05% 北京 5,280

0 0.00% -20 -0.38% -320 -5.71% -220 -4.00% 上海 5,290

0 0.00%

0 0.00% -200 -3.64% -80 -1.49% 武汉 5,000 -20 -0.40% -200 -3.85% -470 -8.59% -230 -4.40% 冷轧 均价 5,249 -12 -0.23% -76 -1.43% -310 -5.58% -183 -3.37% 北京 4,140

0 0.00% -20 -0.48% -640 -13.39% -480 -10.39% 上海 4,390

0 0.00%

20 0.46% -480 -9.86% -310 -6.60% 武汉 4,190 -40 -0.95% -150 -3.46% -630 -13.07% -370 -8.11% 中厚板 均价 4,211 -11 -0.26% -91 -2.12% -645 -13.28% -431 -9.28% 资料来源:Bloomberg,长江证券研究部 图2:螺纹钢价格小幅下跌,均价下跌 0.44% 图3:线材价格小幅下跌,均价下跌 0.72% 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500 6,000 03/Jan/03 03/M ay/03 03/Sep/03 03/Jan/04 03/M ay/04 03/Sep/04 03/Jan/05 03/M ay/05 03/Sep/05 03/Jan/06 03/M ay/06 03/Sep/06 03/Jan/07 03/M ay/07 03/Sep/07 03/Jan/08 03/M ay/08 03/Sep/08 03/Jan/09 03/M ay/09 03/Sep/09 03/Jan/10 03/M ay/10 03/Sep/10 03/Jan/11 03/M ay/11 03/Sep/11 北京 上海 武汉 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500 6,000 6,500 06/Jan/03 06/M ay/03 06/Sep/03 06/Jan/04 06/M ay/04 06/Sep/04 06/Jan/05 06/M ay/05 06/Sep/05 06/Jan/06 06/M ay/06 06/Sep/06 06/Jan/07 06/M ay/07 06/Sep/07 06/Jan/08 06/M ay/08 06/Sep/08 06/Jan/09 06/M ay/09 06/Sep/09 06/Jan/10 06/M ay/10 06/Sep/10 06/Jan/11 06/M ay/11 06/Sep/11 北京 上海 武汉 资料来源:Bloomberg,长江证券研究部 资料来源:Bloomberg,长江证券研究部 请阅读最后一页评级说明和重要声明 行业研究 图4:热轧价格小幅下跌,均价下跌 0.09% 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500 6,000 6,500 7,000 03/Jan/03 03/M ay/03 03/Sep/03 03/Jan/04 03/M ay/04 03/Sep/04 03/Jan/05 03/M ay/05 03/Sep/05 03/Jan/06 03/M ay/06 03/Sep/06 03/Jan/07 03/M ay/07 03/Sep/07 03/Jan/08 03/M ay/08 03/Sep/08 03/Jan/09 03/M ay/09 03/Sep/09 03/Jan/10 03/M ay/10 03/Sep/10 03/Jan/11 03/M ay/11 03/Sep/11 北京 上海 武汉 资料来源:Bloomberg,长江证券研究部 图5:冷轧价格小幅下跌,均价下跌 0.23% 2,800 3,300 3,800 4,300 4,800 5,300 5,800 6,300 6,800 7,300 7,800 10/Jan/03 10/M ay/03 10/Sep/03 10/Jan/04 10/M ay/04 10/Sep/04 10/Jan/05 10/M ay/05 10/Sep/05 10/Jan/06 10/M ay/06 10/Sep/06 10/Jan/07 10/M ay/07 10/Sep/07 10/Jan/08 10/M ay/08 10/Sep/08 10/Jan/09 10/M ay/09 10/Sep/09 10/Jan/10 10/M ay/10 10/Sep/10 10/Jan/11 10/M ay/11 10/Sep/11 北京 上海 武汉 资料来源:Bloomberg,长江证券研究部 图6:中厚板价格小幅下跌,均价下跌 0.26% 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500 6,000 6,500 7,000 03/Jan/03 03/May/03 03/Sep/03 03/Jan/04 03/May/04 03/Sep/04 03/Jan/05 03/May/05 03/Sep/05 03/Jan/06 03/May/06 03/Sep/06 03/Jan/07 03/May/07 03/Sep/07 03/Jan/08 03/May/08 03/Sep/08 03/Jan/09 03/May/09 03/Sep/09 03/Jan/10 03/May/10 03/Sep/10 03/Jan/11 03/May/11 03/Sep/11 北京 上海 武汉 资料来源:Bloomberg,长江证券研究部 ? 期货价格本周小幅上涨,期现价差继续改善但依然为负 期货主力合约价格本周小幅上涨,期现价差继续改善但依然为负. 图7:螺纹钢期货主力合约本周有所上涨 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500 22/Apr/09 22/Jun/09 22/Aug/09 22/Oct/09 22/Dec/09 22/Feb/10 22/Apr/10 22/Jun/10 22/Aug/10 22/Oct/10 22/Dec/10 22/Feb/11 22/Apr/11 22/Jun/11 22/Aug/11 22/Oct/11 螺纹钢期货主力合约价 全国螺纹钢........