PDF《Research UBS SDIC, 请不要传阅》

5 页开始 UBS(瑞银)正在或将要与其报告中所提及的公司发展业务关系.因此,投资者应注意,本公司可能会有对报告的客观性产生影响的利益 冲突.投资者应仅将本报告视为作出投资决策的考虑因素之一. ???? Research UBS SDIC, 请不要传阅 2011/10/25 06:11 快评: 宇通客车 2011年10月25日UBS

2 2011/10/25 06:11 UBS

3 宇通客车 损益表(Rmb 千) - 12/07 12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11E % 12/12E % 12/13E % 营业收入 - 7,880,773 8,335,672 8,781,731 13,478,500 16,236,364 20.5 19,574,804 20.6 23,490,897 20.0 营业费用(不含折旧) - (7,246,585) (7,893,210) (7,977,345) (12,274,034) (14,819,731) 20.7 (17,739,373) 19.7 (21,162,275) 19.3 息税折旧摊销前利润(UBS) - 634,187 442,462 804,386 1,204,466 1,416,632 17.6 1,835,431 29.6 2,328,622 26.9 折旧 - (90,733) (127,735) (189,107) (195,270) (234,205) 19.9 (348,040) 48.6 (495,537) 42.4 营业利润(息税前利润,UBS) - 543,454 314,727 615,279 1,009,196 1,182,427 17.2 1,487,390 25.8 1,833,084 23.2 其他盈利和联营公司盈利 - 72,392 335,797 47,017 (18,708) 21,951 - 7,841 -64.3 12,597 60.7 净利息 - (18,019) (20,700) (8,521) (16,699) 2,303 - 38,623 1576.8 27,802 -28.0 非正常项目(税前) -

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0 - 税前利润 - 597,828 629,825 653,776 973,788 1,206,681 23.9 1,533,854 27.1 1,873,484 22.1 税项 - (161,977) (105,727) (86,306) (116,672) (144,802) 24.1 (184,063) 27.1 (224,818) 22.1 税后利润 - 435,851 524,098 567,470 857,116 1,061,880 23.9 1,349,792 27.1 1,648,666 22.1 非正常项目(税后) -

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0 - 少数股东/优先股股息 - (58,887) 6,945 (3,985) 2,548 (5,309) - (5,129) -3.4 (6,265) 22.1 净利润(本地会计准则) - 376,964 531,043 563,485 859,664 1,056,570 22.9 1,344,663 27.3 1,642,401 22.1 净利润(UBS) - 376,964 531,043 563,485 859,664 1,056,570 22.9 1,344,663 27.3 1,642,401 22.1 税率(%) -

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12 0.0 每股(Rmb) - 12/07 12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11E % 12/12E % 12/13E % 每股收益(本地会计准则) - 0.94 1.02 1.08 1.65 1.56 -5.5 1.99 27.3 2.43 22.1 每股收益(UBS) - 0.94 1.02 1.08 1.65 1.56 -5.5 1.99 27.3 2.43 22.1 每股股息净值 - 0.70 0.60 1.00 0.30 1.02 238.7 1.29 27.3 1.46 12.7 每股现金收益 - 1.17 1.27 1.45 2.03 1.91 -5.9 2.50 31.1 3.16 26.3 每股账面净值 - 5.11 3.23 4.17 4.77 9.57 100.5 10.55 10.2 11.68 10.8 资产负债表(Rmb 千) - 12/07 12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11E % 12/12E % 12/13E % 有形固定资产净值 - 507,128 751,492 1,053,247 1,104,115 1,417,052 28.3 2,674,902 88.8 3,536,458 32.2 无形固定资产净值 - 87,280 239,856 226,200 221,184 864,355 290.8 855,876 -1.0 847,197 -1.0 净营运资本(包括其他资产) - (272,735) (909,064) (417,891) 17,994 29,293 62.8 344,707 1076.8 297,198 -13.8 其他负债 - (471,462) (124,495) (259,473) (278,212) (278,212) 0.0 (278,212) 0.0 (278,212) 0.0 运营投入资本 - (149,789) (42,210) 602,083 1,065,080 2,032,487 90.8 3,597,272 77.0 4,402,640 22.4 投资 - 2,615,120 437,876 652,186 622,417 622,417 0.0 622,417 0.0 622,417 0.0 运用资本总额 - 2,465,330 395,666 1,254,268 1,687,496 2,654,904 57.3 4,219,689 58.9 5,025,056 19.1 股东权益 - 2,658,198 1,679,132 2,167,690 2,482,244 6,471,003 160.7 7,128,895 10.2 7,897,265 10.8 少数股东权益 - 170,375 21,897 6,177 3,629 8,939 146.3 14,068 57.4 20,333 44.5 总股东权益 - 2,828,574 1,701,029 2,173,867 2,485,873 6,479,942 160.7 7,142,963 10.2 7,917,598 10.8 净债务 /(现金) - (363,243) (1,305,363) (919,599) (798,377) (3,825,038) 379.1 (2,923,274) -23.6 (2,892,541) -1.1 其他视同债务的减值准备 -