PDF《香港特别行政区政府 Hong Kong SAR Government》

1 香港特别?政区政府 香港特别?政区政府 Hong Kong SAR Government Hong Kong SAR Government

2006 2006 ?第一季经济报告 ?第一季经济报告 First Quarter Economic Report

2006 First Quarter Economic Report

2006 & &

2006 2006 ?全?修订经济预测 ?全?修订经济预测 Updated economic forecasts for

2006 Updated economic forecasts for

2006 二????五月二十三日 二????五月二十三日

23 23 May

2006 May

2006 2 2006?第一季本地生产总值 GDP for

2006 Q1

3 Another quarter of spectacular GDP growth in

2006 Q1 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

2000 2001

2002 2003

2004 2005

2006 0

5 10

15 20 -5 Year-on-year rate of change in real terms (%) 8.

2

2006 二????第一季本地生产总值增长持续强劲 1996-2005 ?增长趋势 1996-2005 trend growth 与一?前同季比较的实质增减? (%) 3.9

4 2006?首季经济表现特点 Salient features of Q1 performance ? 增长?续十季显著高於趋势

10 quarters of distinctly above-trend growth ? 经济活动广泛上扬,?单出口持续激增,本地需求亦续 有改善 Broad-based upturn, marked by booming export and pick-up in local demand ? 贸?物?、?融和专业及生产服务,和访港?游业表现 出色,但建造业仍然疲弱 Trade and logistic, financial and producer services, and tourism are the bright spots;

but construction still weak ? 就业显著增加;

?工收入及工资亦逐步改善 Significant and broad-based job creation;

labour income and wages improving gradually ? 通胀缓步爬升,但仍处温和健康水平 Inflation creeping up but still very low

5 出口仍然是主要增长动? Exports still the key growth driver 13.1% 9.1% 9.2% 10.7% 13.3% 8.2% 5.6% 10.3% 8.7% 8.9% 14.6% 9.8% 9.0% 11.2% 14.4%

1981 C

1990 1991 C

2000 2001 C

2005 2005 Annual

2006 Q1 整体 Total 服务 Services 货物 Goods

6 但本地需求在经济?苏中 扮演的角色亦非常重要 But domestic demand also played an increasing role in recovery 对本地生产总值增长的贡献 Contribution to GDP growth 6.0% point 5.9% point 本地需求 Domestic demand 8.2% 7.5% 整体 Total 2.2% point 1.6% point 净出口(货物及服务) Net exports of goods and services

2006 Q1

2005 Q4

7 Domestic demand played an increasing role in recovery Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

2000 2001

2002 2003

2004 2005

2006 0

5 10

15 20 -5 -10 -15 Year-on-year rate of change in real terms (%) Investment Private consumption expenditure 8.5 4.5

2006 私人消费开支 本地需求在经济?苏中担当?重要的角色 投资开支 与一?前同季比较的实质增减? (%)

8 Investment underpinned by strong machinery/equipment acquisition Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

2000 2001

2002 2003

2004 2005

2006 0

10 20

30 40 -10 -20 Year-on-year rate of change in real terms (%) Gross domestic fixed capital formation Machinery, equipment and computer software 机器/设备购置支持投资开支持续上升 本地固定资本形成总额 机器、设备及电脑软件 8.5 23.3

2006 与一?前同季比较的实质增减? (%)

9 Construction still the laggard in current recovery 建造开支仍未?苏 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

2000 2001

2002 2003

2004 2005

2006 0

5 10

15 -5 -10 -15 -20 Year-on-year rate of change in real terms (%) -1.8 -8.7 Overall building and construction 整体?宇及建造 Private building and construction 私营机构?宇及建造