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7 中外运输Equity Research Equity Research Report 证券研究报告Company Report 股票研究公司报告证券研究报告[Tab le_I nfo1 ] 电力设备行业Electric Equipment Sector [Tab le_I nfo2 ] 东方电气Dongfang Electric (01072 HK) [Table_Title] Company Report: Dongfang Electric (01072 HK) 中文版 Jun Zhu 朱俊杰 (852)

2509 7592 公司报告:东方电气 (01072 HK) Chinese version junjie.

[email protected]

5 September

2017 [Table_Summary] SOE Reform to Drive Growth, Upgrade to Accumulate 国企改革驱动增长,上调至 收集 ? 1H17 earnings were better than expectations but in line with the Company'

s profit alert. Net profit in 1H17 reached RMB

377 mn, higher than market expectation but in line with the prior issued profit alert. Strong recovery on gross margin, effective cost control, and a sharp decline in asset impairment loss are the key reasons behind the turnaround in 1H17. ? New orders in 1H17 amounted to RMB 15.1 bn, down sharply by 47.0% YoY. New orders dropped 47.0% YoY in 1H17 and overseas markets made up 6.0% of total new orders signed. Orders on hand also dropped YoY by 24.4% to RMB 93.8 bn. Newly signed high efficiency clean energy equipment (thermal) orders in 1H17 were only a third of the amount signed in 1H16, which is the key reason of the new orders decline. ? We have revised our earnings estimates with consideration to the strengthened fundamentals. We expect the gradual gross margin recovery, low asset impairment loss and the incoming assets to be injected by the parent to help drive the rebound of Dongfang Electric. We thus raise our earnings estimates from

2017 to 2019. Our revised EPS estimates from FY17 to FY19 are RMB 0.325, RMB 0.422 and RMB 0.439, respectively. ? We raise our TP to HK$10.00 and upgrade the investment rating to Accumulate . Our new TP corresponds to 26.2x / 20.1x FY17 / FY18 PER or 0.9x / 0.9x FY17 / FY18 PBR. ?

2017 上半年的盈利好于预期但与早前的盈利警告一致.2017 上半年公司净利达人民币

377 百万,高于市场的预期但与早前发布的盈利预告一致.期内毛利率的强劲回升,有 效的成本控制以及资产减值损失的急速下滑是导致期内业绩好转的主要原因. ? 期内新增订单

151 亿人民币,同比大幅下降 47.0%.新增订单于

2017 上半年回落了 47.0%,而海外订单贡献了总新增订单的 6.0%.期末在手订单同比下跌 24.4%至938 亿人民币.期内新签的高效清洁能源装备(火电)订单量仅为去年同期的三分之一,是 期内新增订单大幅下滑的主因. ? 鉴于基本面的增强,我们调整了对公司的盈利预测.我们预计毛利率的逐渐回升,低资 产减值损失,以及即将由母公司注入的新资产均将助力驱动东方电气的业绩反弹.我们 因此调整了

2017 年至

2019 年的盈利预测.经调整后的

2017 至2019 财年的每股盈利 分别为人民币 0.325,人民币 0.422 以及人民币 0.439. ? 我们上调目标价至 10.00 港元并同时上调投资评级至 收集 .新目标价相当于 26.2 倍/ 20.1 倍2017 /

2018 年市盈率或 0.9 倍/ 0.9 倍2017 /

2018 年市净率. [Table_Rank] Rating: Accumulate Upgraded 评级: 收集 (上调) [Table_Price] 6-18m TP 目标价: HK$10.00 Revised from 原目标价: HK$6.50 Share price 股价: HK$8.140 Stock performance 股价表现 [Table_QuotePic] [Table_PriceChange] Change in Share Price 股价变动

1 M

1 个月

3 M

3 个月

1 Y

1 年Abs. % 绝对变动 % (0.9) 25.1 37.2 Rel. % to HS Index 相对恒指变动 % (2.4) 17.3 17.1 Avg. share price(HK$) 平均股价(港元) 6.1 6.2 6.4 Source: Bloomberg, Guotai Junan International. [Table_ Profit] Year End Turnover Net Profit EPS EPS PER BPS PBR DPS Yield ROE 年结 收入 股东净利 每股净利 每股净利变动 市盈率 每股净资产 市净率 每股股息 股息率 净资产收益率 12/31 (RMB m) (RMB m) (RMB) ( %) (x) (RMB) (x) (RMB) 2015A 36,018